December 9, 2011 – UFC 140 goes down this Saturday night in Toronto, Canada with Jon Jones defending his UFC Light Heavyweight Title against Lyoto Machida in the main event of the evening. Also supporting the featured fight of the evening are two top Brazilians in the Nogueira brothers, Antonio Rodrigo and Antonio Rogerio. They’ll be taking on Frank Mir and Tito Ortiz respectively on the main card of the evening. Rounding out the main card are two fights featuring popular Canadians fighting on their home soil when Mark Hominick takes on “The Korean Zombie” Chael Sung Jung and Claude Patrick taking on Brian Ebersole.

Here’s our analysis and predictions for all the fights set to go down tomorrow evening at the Air Canada Centre.

UFC 140  – Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Jon Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2)

Will the Jones Jones era continue or will we be seeing a return to the Machida Era as Lyoto looks for his second win in a row after beating Randy Couture in Toronto this past April in his last fight?

As many have surmised leading up to this fight, this is indeed a very interesting matchup with both fighters being rangy, unpredictable standup fighters that also possess amazing takedown skills and good grappling on the ground that many haven’t seen.

As far as who holds the advantage as the favorite in this fight, it’s clear to see that the champion is the one that deserves that distinction. Now only is his striking technique improving at a staggering rate (as evident by his destruction of former champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua) but he’s also someone that’s continued to confound all challengers to his throne while making it look easy. Whether it was Rua, or Rampage Jackson, or the guys before them, no fighter has ever been able to seriously put Jones in trouble.

Will that change with Machida? That remains to be seen. The Dragon poses an interesting matchup with his karate style and effective use of distance to confound and bewilder his own opponents. The question is will that be effective against an opponent who stands 6’4” with 84” of reach? That remains to be seen and the odds are against his favor..

Prediction: Jon Jones by TKO in RD3.

Heavyweight: Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1)

This bout is a rematch of their first bout rougly two years ago in December 2008. In that fight, Frank Mir defeated Noguiera via strikes in round two of a bout where he displayed vastly improved striking to dominate the former PRIDE star. Two days after and it was revealed that Nogueira was gething over a staph infection heading into the contest and that may have affected his performance. But was that really the reason for the outcome? It may have played a part but it had nothing to do with Mir’s effectiveness and in either case won’t play a part when they go at it again.

Earlier in his career, Minotauro was lauded for having some of the best boxing in the heavyweight division after working on that skill set with the Cuban national team. In his prime, he was able to use his hands coupled with an iron chin and BJJ prowess to beat people but I don’t know if he can use the same skills in combination in this day and age. Like it or not and he’s slowed and is no longer the fight he once was.

Meanwhile, Frank Mir has been able to improve on his own technical ability while avoiding the wear and tear on his body that has plagued his opponent. He’ll walk into the cage physically superior as the bigger, stronger, and likely faster man. And while he doesn’t display quite the accolades of the BJJ champ Nogueira and hasn’t worked with Olympians to hone his boxing (that we know of), Mir is still every bit as dangerous and can control the pace of which this fight is fought with the same combinations that won him the first fight. Big Nog may have learned from that first fight but that may not stop Mir from bullying him while avoiding getting taken down himself. This fight would have been a better test if Nog went to it in his prime but Mir looks like the younger fresher fighter at this point.

Prediction: Frank Mir by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweight: Tito Ortiz (19-5) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (16-9-1)

A lot of people have written Tito Ortiz off at this point and that’s fine. Yet he’s still planning on proving the pundits wrong.

This fight is actually an interesting one in that pits man formerly known as the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” against that should be a pretty decent matchup for him. Lil’ Nog was once a great fighter himself in Pride, even being one of the few people to have submitted Dan Henderson and beating many others including Alistair Overeem (twice). Yet for everything he’s accomplished. he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since coming over the UFC. He’s lost his last two to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader which is nothing to hang your head in shame over but let’s not forget his fight before those was a disputed decision win over Jason Brilz.

As with most of his fights, Tito’s chances for success go up immeasurably if he can get the takedown and control from top position. In this one, he’s got a legit chance to do that against an opponent that hasn’t fared too well against wrestlers as of late. Look for Ortiz to go for his patented double-leg if boxing with the Brazilian isn’t going well and happily work his GNP from within his opponent’s guard. That may be how this fight goes unless Tito gasses as he’s been prone to do. Who knows though… Maybe he’s got more in him.

Prediction: Tito Ortiz by unanimous decision.

Welterweight: Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1)

This fight was supposed to feature the supposed second-coming of St. Pierre in Rory McDonald before he bowed out due to injury. Taking his place is fellow Canadian Claude Patrick – a grimy wrestler type who likes to get the fight to the ground and tough out victories. Patrick will be taking on the man who beat the breaks off Dennis Hallman after he wore those infamous panties to the cage for the first and last time at UFC 133.

Analyzing this fight, it’s looking more and more like a battle of Ebersole’s striking versus Patrick’s grappling. Whoever can impose their will should win out but right now, Ebersole looks like he has more weapons.

Prediction: Brian Ebersole by unanimous decision.

Featherweight: Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3)

“The Korean Zombie” might be biting off more than he can chew (pun intended) in taking on Mark Hominick and his grotesque looking hematoma after the Jose Aldo fight.

Okay, okay, maybe Hominick’s little friend will be staying at home for this one and that’s probably a good thing for him. In all actuality, he spells a bad matchup for Jung due to the fact that he’s very hard to take down and will enter this fight as the more technical striker by a mile. He can finish this fight on the feet or take the decision whereas Jung will have to do something remarkable and stop Hominick in order to get the win. Look for the Canadian to punish his opponent and stop this one within the distance.

Prediction: Hominick by TKO in RD2.

UFC 140  – Preliminary Card (ION Television)

Bantamweight: Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson

Prediction: Watson by KO in RD1.

Lightweight: John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman

Prediction: Dennis Hallman by submission in RD2.

Middleweight: Jared Hamman vs. Constantinos Philippu

Prediction: Hamman by TKO In RD2.

Light Heavyweight: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokajac

Prediction: Soszynski by unanimous decision.

UFC 140  – Preliminary Card (Facebook)

Lightweight: Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz

Prediction: Lentz by submission in RD3.

Welterweight: Rich Attonito vs. Jake Hecht

Prediction: Attonito by unanimous decision.

Lightweight: Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish

Prediction: Cholish by unanimous decision.

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