UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II – Preview and Predictions

By TXMMA Staff | cover photo: Anne-Marie Sorvin-US PRESSWIRE

Pair of dominant Brazilians look to defend title belts at UFC 169 this Saturday

January 31, 2014 – It’s Super Bowl weekend but plenty of MMA fans will be looking forward to something else in the New York / New Jersey area as the Ultimate Fighting Championship brings UFC 169 to the Prudential Center in Newark the night before the big game. UFC 169 features pair of title fights in the bantamweight and featherweight divisions with Jose Aldo and Renan Barao defending their belts against Ricardo Lamas and Urijah Faber respectively. The UFC’s annual Super Bowl weekend show also featured a pair of popular former champions in the heavyweight division with Alistair Overeem taking on Frank Mir as part of a planned 12 fights overall so this should be a good one. Let’s break down the entire card in further detail.

UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II – Main Card Preview and Predictions (PPV)

135 lbs.: Renan Barao (31-1) vs. Urijah Faber (30-6) Former WEC champ Urijah Faber has looked better than he has in recent years. The 34 year old has won his last four fights and has shown no signs of slowing down even now in the ‘latter portion’ of his career. With  the injury relapse of former champ Dominick Cruz, Faber gets hit shot at UFC gold once again versus the last mean to beat him in Renan Barao. Now while Urijah Faber is certainly the right choice to replace Cruz in this main event bout, there is plenty of doubt over whether he’s evolved enough for this to look a lot differently than their last fight, which was a disaster for the American back at UFC 149. Renan Barao won that fight by a large margin and has looked even better since then, nothing 2 more defenses in 2013. Renan Barao is simply a much more devastating and diverse striker than his opponent, hard to bully or take down, and aggressive enough to dictate the pace of this fight. Faber will be hard pressed to come up with a strategy to win this fight on points and whatever he does will leave him vulnerable to openings. Simply put, there’s a reason Barao has won his 31 straight fights and to see him slow down here would be a huge surprise.

Prediction: Renan Barao over Urijah Faber by Unanimous Decision  

145 lbs.: Jose Aldo (23-1) vs. Ricardo Lamas (13-2) Featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo returns here fresh off his exciting fight with the “Korean Zombie” Chang Sung Jung at UFC 163. He’ll be facing perhaps an even more dangerous contender in this one in Ricardo Lamas. Stylistically Ricardo Lamas is a great wrestler with some decent hands. He’s also got a good gas tank which should be reliable for him in this five round fight. The knock on him going in is that he hasn’t been tested against too many top guys minus Hatsu Hioki who he beat by decision. As for Jose Aldo, everyone knows who is by now and that’s one of the top fighters in the world – a world-class striker who also has the grappling to back it up. The knock on him has always been his struggle at times with making weight and sustaining his cardio in long fights but his talent has always gotten him through. His list of victims in his last four fights includes Zombie, Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes and Kenny Florian. It’s hard to critique a guy too much with a resume like that. As much as we like Lamas as a legitimate contender, it’s also realistically a big long shot that he will be the one to upset the apple cart here. Look for Aldo to control the distance and pick his opponent apart early en route to a stoppage in the later portions of this fight.

Prediction: Jose Aldo over Ricardo Lamas by TKO, RD4  

265 lbs.: Frank Mir (16-8) vs. Alistair Overeem (36-13) Two former heavyweight champions meet up in the third most important fight of the night at UFC 169 when Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem collide. Headed into this fight both men should be in somewhat of desperation mode to salvage their careers with Mir having lost 3 straight to Alistair’s 2. Nobody will say this is a ‘loser leaves town’ match but it could certainly prove to be as much with these guys not getting any younger. Of the two and their losses Overeem has looked better before falling. He dominated Antonio Silva and nearly finished Travis Browne before getting caught in both fights whereas Mir has gotten thrashed in his own losses. Mir is also a slow striker whereas Overeem comes out of the gate so he’s got that going against him as well. Most would label this a classic striker versus grappler match but we don’t think it’s going to look like that. Basically if Brock Lsnar and Fabricio Werdum couldn’t take the big man down then it’s highly doubtful Mir will. And he’s going to get trounced on his feet. Look for this to be a short night for Frank.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem over Frank Mir by TKO, RD1  

125 lbs.: John Lineker (23-6) vs. Ali Bagautinov (12-2) A pivotal flyweight contest marks the next fight on the UC 169 main card with John Lineker looking to earn next in line for a flyweight title shot against Demetrious Johnson. In order to get there he’s going to have to go through “The Puncher King” Ali Bagautinov and that won’t be an easy task. John Lineker has won 4 straight since losing his UFC debut to Louis Gaudinot. He’s also finished his last three by KO/TKO. Meanwhile Bagautinov has won both of his UFC fights and has finished 3 out of his last four by TKO also. This should be a close fight and could definitely contend for fight of the night honors. I mean, with nicknames like “Hands of Stone” and “The Puncher King” how could we (fans) lose?

Prediction: John Lineker over Ali Bagautinov by TKO, RD2

155 lbs.: Jamie Varner (21-8-1) vs. Abel Trujillo (11-5) It’s hard to believe former WEC champ Jamie Varner is still around and contending after so many years in the sport but he’s still shown flashes of top contender talent in some of his fights – including big wins over Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza. He’s also shown some inconsistency also with losses to Gleison Tibau and Joe Lauzon so it’s anybody’s guess which Varner shows up on Saturday. He’ll be taking on a dangerous opponent in Abel Trujillo, a former Strikeforce rep who’s been a roll as of late, most recently taking out Roger Bowling on FOX. Look for this fight to be another up-tempo standup fight. At this point in his career Trujillo should have the physical advantages (strength/speed) to beat the former champ and progress his career to the next level. That’s what he’s looking at here so look for him to treat this fight like the pivotal one that it is and come out on top.

Prediction: Abel Trujillo over Jamie Varner by decision  

UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II – Preliminary Card Preview and Predictions (FOX Sports)

  155 lbs.: John Makdessi (12-2) vs. Alan Patrick (11-0) The last bout on the preliminary undercard pits Canadian John Makdessi against UFC sophomore Alan Patrick. Makdessi has won three straight so he has momentum going into this one but Patrick will be the taller, rangier fighter. In order for Makdessi to win he’ll have to find his way inside and close the distance but he should be able to do so here.

Prediction: John Makdessi over Alan Patrick by TKO, RD1  

145 lbs.: Chris Cariaso (15-5) vs. Danny Martinez (16-4) Chris “Kamikaze” Cariaso returns looking for his 2nd win in a row against octagon newcomer Danny Martinez. He’s 5-3 overall in the UFC and faced Renan Barao in the WEC prior to that so he’s definitely got the experience edge in this one but Martinez has also faced the likes Jussier da Silva, Joseph Benavidez, and Mark Hominick in the past also so he won’t be a stranger to tough opposition. Overall this one should be a war of attrition standing up with both guys looking to win rounds. Close one here but Cariaso should have the slight edge.

Prediction: Chris Cariaso over Danny Martinez by Unanimous Decision  

185 lbs.: Nick Catone (9-4) vs. Tom Watson (16-6) This is a striker vs. grappler matchup with UK native Tom “Kong” Watson looking to pit his kickboxing prowess against New Jersey wrestler / BJJ brown belt Nick Catone. The latter hasn’t fought since December 2012 so he might be rusty but he’s also fighting on his home turf so look for him to come in highly motivated. His skillset is also a bad matchup for the grappling-challenged Watson so look for him to take this one to the ground and grind out the win from top position.

Prediction: Nick Catone over Tom Watson by Unanimous Decision  

170 lbs.: Al Iaquinta (7-2-1) vs. Kevin Lee (6-0) Speaking of fighting on their home turf, Long Island native Al Iaquinta won’t be far from his when he takes on unbeaten prospect Kevin Lee. A training partner to middleweight champ Chris Weidman, Al has won 2 straight and is looking for 3 while Kevin is looking to make a splash in his UFC debut. Hard to say how people will react in these situations but Iaquinta is a pretty well-rounded vet at this point and should be able to win out here in front of his hometown fans. Prediction: Al Iaquinta over Kevin Lee by Unanimous Decision

185 lbs.: Clint Hester (9-3) vs. Andy Enz (7-0) It’s a battle of two former TUF 17 contestants here as Clint Hester takes on Andy Enz. A solid striker, Hester has gone 2-0 since taking the cage officially following the reality show while Enz, a submission specialist, has also remained successful staying undefeated officially at 7-0. This one could go either way but I like Andy’s chances to drag Hester down and produce the submission to accomplish the slight upset in this one.

Prediction: Andy Enz over Clint Hester by submission, RD1

UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II – Preliminary Card Preview and Predictions (Fight Pass)

170 lbs.: Tony Martin (8-0) vs. Rashid Magomedov (15-1) Russian newcomer Rashid Magomedov is a former M-1 champion and has won eight in a row while fellow newcomer has won all eight of his own fights. Always hard to predict what will happen when two debut guys make their way to the cage but we’ll take the Russian by virtue of his overall experience.

Prediction: Rashid Magomedov over Tony Martin by Unanimous Decision  

185 lbs.: Neil Magny (8-3) vs. Gasan Umalatov (14-2-1) TUF vet Neil Magny has lost his last 2 and could be facing the chopping block here if he doesn’t win against Russian newcomer Gasan Umalatov. Hard to say what to expect here with neither guy standing out in particular but we’ll go with the guy in desperation mode for the win.

Prediction: Neil Magny over Gasan Umalatov by Unanimous Decision