By Mike Calimbas | Photo: Tim Kennedy by Esther Lin, Strikeforce Houston
There Can Only Be One: Strikeforce Alums Roger Gracie and Tim Kennedy Seek First UFC Win Against Each Other This Saturday Night
Looking ahead to this weekend’s UFC 162 event in Las Vegas there are a lot of fans looking forward to seeing Anderson Silva back in action when he takes on Chris Weidman but there are many other fights on the card worthy of note as well.
Specifically for BJJ fans and fans of fighters from Texas (many of our readers are both) one UFC 162 matchup in particularly buzz-worthy in the main card clash pitting Austin, TX based Tim Kennedy (15-4) versus Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and grappling legend Roger Gracie (6-1). With this coming Saturday marking the UFC debut for both Roger and Tim, look for both to come in looking to make quite the impression.
For Tim, he’s been a good amount of time preparing for this bout with fellow Texas-based UFC fighters – including Colton Smith along with Andrew Craig and Brian Melancon who will both also be appearing on the UFC 162 card. He’s also spent a good deal of time in Albuquerque, NM with noted trainers Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn.
The US Special Forces veteran knows he’ll have a task on his hand dealing with his opponent’s grappling acumen but he’s also not scared by it. As they say, “this isn’t a grappling match, it’s an MMA fight” so he’ll likely look to employ his all-around skills to best his <BJJ> world champion opponent.
Looking at his career record, Tim Kennedy has faced some other reputedly exceptional grapplers in the past – including Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Luke Rockhold, and even another all-time BJJ great in Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. The common denominator there is that he’s lost to all three of those opponents (unanimous decisions) but that’s not to say he’s devoid of grappling skills of his own either. Known as a well-balanced fighter, Kennedy’s career wins are fairly split between submissions and TKO’s. It would be fair to say that he is a jack of all trades.
Meanwhile when it comes to Roger Gracie, there’s no secret to what his bread-and-butter is. With an illustrious grappling career encompassing many world championships in both BJJ and submission wrestling, it’s also fair to see that he is and will likely forever be a grappling specialist, but that’s not to say he isn’t trying to get better everywhere else as well. He may never be Melvin Manhoef or somebody like that in the striking game but he’s worked hard to improve his kickboxing both offensively and defensively, learning from his lone loss in MMA, a knockout defeat against former Strikeforce champ “King Mo” Muhammed Lawal in the light-heavyweight division prior to his drop to middleweight in late 2011.
Fight Analysis
So looking at both their backgrounds and their respective skill sets, what are the keys to this fight between Tim Kennedy and Roger Gracie and who will go into Saturday night as the favorite?
To be perfectly honest, that’s a tough call on all counts. Kennedy will probably go into as the favorite (he’s currently -155 or so in Vegas as we speak) and that’s on account of his experience. The UFC certainly didn’t go out of their way to give Roger an easy first opponent because of his last name. Tim’s as well-rounded as they come and is not looking to be anyone’s gatekeeper – especially not when he’s trying to make his own impression. At the same time Roger is a pretty rangy middleweight at 6’4″ with a five-inch reach advantage in this fight so Kennedy will have to go to a look of work to try and beat him striking from the outside. He could close the gap and try to KO him like King Mo but does he have that same combination of wrestling and KO power to be effective in that regard? That remains to be seen but is not out of the realm of possibility. As we’ve seen over and again in MMA, sometimes all it takes is that one shot.
More likely than not we’ll see who’ll win this fight based on who controls the middle-to-close range distance on the feet. If Kennedy can do his damage and get out before Roger can trip him up and begin to mount his game (no pun intended), then he’ll have a good shot at winning this fight. Meanwhile Roger will have to put all his newfound striking skills to use and close the distance if he’s to establish his own pace and avoid losing a three round decision or worse.
Like we said, tough fight to call. Vegas will likely have Kennedy as the favorite but Gracie could be a very live underdog.
How about you – who do you think will win? Chime in with your comments and we’ll see who gets it right come Saturday night at UFC 162!