By Felix Rodriguez, Staff Writer
We pick up right where we left off and move on to analyze and predict the five fights on the main card. Feel free to share your predictions for UFC 156 in the comments section and make sure to not make plans this Saturday because this card looks very promising!
UFC 156 Main Card Preview and Predictions (PPV)
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall – Flyweight Bout
UFC 156’s main card will begin with the little guys. Ian McCall (11-3-1) and Joseph Benavidez (16-3) are both trying to bounce back from losses. Each fighter came up short when challenging Demetrious Johnson for the 125 lb strap, but the winner of this bout will inch closer to the flyweight’s number one contender position and the loser will be looking at two consecutive losses and a long climb back up the contenders ladder. McCall and Benavidez are a lock for non-stop action from bell to bell and don’t be surprised if this ends up being Fight of the Night. McCall was considered the top flyweight in the world before moving to the UFC and will look to emerge victorious on his third try in the octagon. The Team Oyama representative will face a lot of the same challenges posed by Johnson when he fights Benavidez on Saturday. Benavidez is an excellent wrestler that is comfortable throwing punches from his opponents guard and he has proven power in his hands since dropping down a weight class. McCall should avoid prolonged exchanges standing because he won’t be able to match Benavidez’s power; his best chance at success is to stick and move so he can avoid trading/clinching up.
Prediction: The taller McCall will be game and try to fight on the outside to exploit his reach advantage, but Benavidez will control the ring and mix in take down attempts with flurries of strikes. Uncle Creepy will be thinking takedown and get caught with a big overhand towards the second half of the fight; look for Benavidez to finish him with hammer fists or a guillotine if McCall tries to turtle. Benavidez by TKO, Round 2.
Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia – Welterweight Bout
This match will pit the grinding wrestling style of perennial contender Jon Fitch (24-4-1-1NC) against the 170lb division’s top BJJ specialist, Demian Maia (17-4). Maia has won two in a row since dropping down a weight class and returning to his limb mangling roots. The former middleweight standout burst onto the UFC with a series of jaw-dropping submissions, but was outclassed by Anderson Silva, knocked out by Nate Marquardt and outmuscled by Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz in defeat. Don Hyun Kim’s injury didn’t allow for Maia to show much, but his fight with Rick Story painted a stark picture for his WW opponents. Maia is tired of being a mediocre striker and is ready to keep it jiu-jitsu real when he fights the grinder from San Jose’s AKA. Fitch’s draw to BJ Penn and KO loss to Johnny Hendricks had led many to doubt him, but his strong performance against Erick Silva gave his stock a much-needed boost. This fight looks awesome on paper and could deliver the Submission of the Night, but could also devolve into another Maia vs. Dan Miller type of kickboxing match if Fitch and Maia avoid each other’s strengths and keep it standing. If the fight goes to the ground then Fitch is playing Russian Roulette with a certified submission beast. It goes without saying that the longer the fight goes the chances for a Maia submission become less likely. Fitch is a cardio machine and as the fight goes into deeper waters and they get sweatier the likelihood of Fitch grinding out another decision skyrockets.
Prediction: Maia will be too big for Fitch to muscle as he has other opponents. Look for Maia to bring things to the ground any way he can early in the fight and tap Fitch out for the first time in his career. Think Chael Sonnen vs. Demian Maia. Maia by submission, Round 1.
Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Big Foot Silva – Heavyweight Bout
Antonio Big Foot Silva (17-4) will try to make it two wins in a row in the UFC after knocking out Travis Browne and push himself into the title picture by derailing a blockbuster showdown between Cain Velazquez and Alistair Overeem (36-11-0-1NC). Big Foot has fought some of the biggest names in the heavyweight division. His most notable wins were under the Strikeforce banner and include a decision over Andrei Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko’s only KO loss. If The Reem can keep his testosterone-episterone levels in check and emerge victorious against Silva he is definitely next in line for a title shot. Overeem’s foe is a massive heavyweight that uses his enormous hands as sledgehammers to knockout his opponents. Big Foot is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but favors striking and has 12 knockouts to his credit. Striking is something that Overeem is kind of good at too so it is unlikely that Big Foot will have the upper hand standing against Holland’s premier horsemeat connoisseur. Silva has problems when he can’t bully his opponents and dictate the pace of the fight, this was made clear in his losses to Velazquez and Daniel Cormier. Overeem likes to bully his opponents with an excellent Thai Plum to unleash deadly knees, but he is also a deadly striker from range. This was evidenced in his last octagon appearance when he kicked Brock Lesnar right in his diverticulitis and sent the behemoth into retirement. It does not look good for Silva.
Prediction: Silva will have no answer for Overeem’s striking prowess and the referee will mercifully stop the fight after Big Foot absorbs a beating throughout the first two rounds. Overeem by technical TKO, Round 2.
Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira – Light Heavyweight Bout
Rashad Evans (17-2-1) will look to bounce back from his failed title bid against Jon Jones in what may be his final fight as a LHW. Whether Suga drops down a weight class or not you can rest assured that Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5) plans on letting Rashad know what it feels like to lose two in a row. Evans needs to make a statement win regardless of what weight his next fight is at. An impressive win could put him closer to a rematch with his longtime frenemy or set up a lucrative title bout against one Anderson Silva. Little Nog is 5-2 in the UFC and was last seen sending Tito Ortiz into retirement. Nogueira is at his best when allowed to counterpunch strikers with his crisp boxing and when imposing his jiu-jitsu on the ground. Evans was a one-dimensional wrestler at first that blossomed into a dangerous striker as his career progressed in the octagon. The smart thing for Evans to do is keep the fight standing with his superior wrestling skills and makes this into a stand up war.
Prediction: This fight will go the distance. Evans will decision the durable Nogueira after trading shots with him for three exciting rounds. Evans by Unanimous Decision.
Jose Aldo (champion) vs. Frankie Edgar – Featherweight Bout
UFC matchmaker Joe Silva hit it out of the park with UFC 156’s main event. This looks to be the first in a series of inter-division superfights that Zuffa is trying to put together. Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) will make his long overdue debut at 145lbs and try to become the third man to hold belts in different weight classes. The only thing between Edgar and history happens to be one of the most dominant champions of recent times. Jose Aldo (21-1) is a beast. The Nova Uniao representative was last seen brutally KO’ing Chad Mendes at UFC 142. If Aldo beats Edgar he will extend his record streak by having defended the FW belt four times, but it is safe to say that this is the toughest challenge the Brazilian has ever faced. Because this is Edgar’s first fight as a featherweight it is hard to predict how his speed and power will translate at 145. If that weren’t enough he’ll have to deal with the brutal kicks and laser accurate strikes that have made Aldo a household name. Edgar showed quick reflexes and good leg kick defense when fighting Benson Henderson in their rematch. Throughout that fight Edgar was able to neutralize Henderson’s leg attacks by checking and catching his kicks. Will he be able to do that to Aldo though? How Edgar defends against Aldo’s leg kicks will be the key to win this fight. He should also think twice about taking the fight to the ground too hastily or he may end up like Chad Mendes and Cub Swanson. Edgar’s best chances of winning is to use a game plan like Carlos Condit used against Nick Diaz, picking his shots while constantly back pedaling so Aldo doesn’t use him as target practice. If Edgar’s cardio carries over to 145 then his chances of catching/outpointing Aldo increase the more he taxes the champ’s gas tank. 25 mistake free minutes is a lot to ask of someone fighting Aldo though.
Prediction: Edgar will look good at first, but Aldo will figure out the challenger’s timing by the middle round. Look for Aldo to separate Edgar from his consciousness after countering a takedown attempt with one of those baseball bats he hides inside his legs in the championship rounds. Aldo by KO, Round 4.