By Felix Rodriguez, Staff Writer
It doesn’t get any more often than that. Even more encouraging is the fact that UFC on FOX 5 is a card most people PAY to see all day long!
This fight card is stacked from top to bottom with intriguing matchups.
UFC on FOX 5 will have a healthy dose of Zuffa’s homegrown talent with 10 TUF alums that including title challenger Nick Diaz, a couple of old school stalwarts in B.J. Penn and Mauricio ‘Shogun,’ two possible future champions in Rory MacDonald and Alexander Gustaffsson, and then the card will be rounded out with some known veterans and a few newer names as well.
UFC on FOX 5 looks like a great way to kick-off the holiday season and if the fights translate well from paper to the cage then MMA fans around the world will receive an early gift this year ladies and gentlemen.
Here are my predictions for UFC on FOX 5’s main card:
UFC ON FOX 5 – Main Card Predictions (8PM EST / 9PM Central)
155 lbs.: Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz (Main Event Title Fight)
We have officially stepped out of the Frankie Edgar era and Benson Henderson’s next storyline involves the more accessible, but no less meaner half of the Diaz brothers, Nate Diaz. This fight is incredibly intriguing to me because the strengths of each man plays to the weaknesses of the other. Bendo has combined a solid striking base with good transitions into takedowns, flexibility and excellent cardio with an uncanny ability to escape submission attempts in order to become the UFC’s LW champ. He is currently on a 5-fight win streak, all by decision, in which he was able to control submission savvy fighters like Jim Miller and Mark Bocek and respected wrestlers like Edgar and Clay Guida by pushing a relentless pace on the way to victory.
This is precisely the type of opponent that Diaz has struggled with in the past. Even when ignoring the way larger fighters like Rory Macdonald and Dong Hyun Kim controlled him, his losses at LW have been due to the stifling top control of fighters like Gray Maynard, Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. In all five of Diaz’s Zuffa defeats taking him down early and often negated the excellent use of range he has developed in his boxing. Diaz relies on his unending cardio and high volume punching to overwhelm opponents and force a TKO or submission leading mistake; when he can’t dictate the pace and he’s put on his back he has a nasty Cesar Gracie-bred submission game. He has struggled to implement it in defeat when bigger wrestlers or submission savvy fighters have known to anticipate and defend the sub attempts off his back. If Benson Henderson can follow the formula set in Diaz’s other defeats he will probably survive the night successfully despite a couple of scares.
Prediction: Diaz will have success early with his range and will threaten with a few subs but Henderson will control the fight on the ground and earn a unanimous decision victory.
205 lbs.: Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson (Co-Main Event)
Although they only have a six-year age difference these men are separated by the years of wealth of experience and wear and tear accumulated by Mauricio Rua. Shogun has been holding it down since the Pride FC days using the amazing Muay Thai learned from Rafael Cordeiro at Chute Boxe and solid jiu-jitsu skills to against some of MMA’s current and future legends.
Since finally recovering from a devastating knee injury Shogun earned the LHW belt by deciphering the Lyoto Machida puzzle in their rematch, lost the belt to Jon Jones, avenged a prior Forrest Griffin loss and then he fought and lost to Dan Henderson in one of the greatest and most physically taxing fights of all time. The Henderson affair is the kind of slugfest that shaves years from a fighter’s career and Shogun’s first soirée back after that fight will be against Alexander Gustafsson.
The Swede has a similar frame to Jon Jones’ and uses Dominic Cruz-type footwork to win fights, mostly by finishes. Gustafsson’s lone blemish came at the hands of Phil Davis, whom he trains with now, but Shogun will not be able to use the same takedown-centric game plan as him to win. If the Swede tries to exploit the same advantages that Jon Jones’ body type provided to beat Shogun it is unlikely that he will be able to control Rua on the floor and may end up losing by submission when Shogun rolls into a kneebar or heel hook. For this reason I expect the fight to stay upright and there will be a clash between Gustafsson’s elegant footwork and use of range against the brutal brand of Shogun’s Thai boxing.
Prediction: The months of analyzing how he could have done better against Jon Jones will provide the insight that allows Shogun to penetrate into Gustafsson’s range. Look for him to set up the TKO with leg kicks in the third round.
170 lbs.: B.J. Penn vs. Rory MacDonald
The old verses young lion storyline is always awesome. UFC on FOX 5 features two of these prominently, but unlike the Rua vs. Gustaffsson match where the Old Lion prevails, I don’t think B.J. Penn is ready for Rory MacDonald’s jelly. I’m thrilled to see the future hall-of-famer come back after his fight with Nick Diaz, but if he was looking to ride into the sunset with a win then I think he picked the wrong opponent. Why? See: Tri Star Gym, Firas Zahabi and George St. Pierre as exhibits A, B & C. MacDonald’s skill set is a mirror image to proven Pen kryptonite and forever nemesis, George St. Pierre who is one of his main training partners. MacDonald will count with 7 rounds of fighting experience passed on by St. Pierre and the knowledge gained from two prior training camps of preparation for Penn’s tendencies by Firas Zahabi to add to his own game plan. I don’t see a 33-year-old Penn overcoming the same type of problems St. Pierre posed when he fought him at his athletic peak when he meets MacDonald who seems cloned from St. Pierre’s fighting mold and is yet to reach his. Penn will feel like in déjà-vu when he sees himself gassing after relentless takedown defenses, then and now, he will eventually see the ground and will not be able to keep his opponent in guard. Expect a three-peat for the Tri-Star boys.
Prediction: MacDonald will use the clinch to force Penn to the fence and negate his ability to maneuver away from the takedown. Once on the ground the younger, faster and stronger MacDonald will keep passing guard and landing blows from atop en route to a unanimous decision victory.
170 lbs.: Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown
UFC matchmaker extraordinaire Joe Silva did well with this matchup, as both TUF graduates are known for putting out crowd-pleasing fights. Matt Brown is on a three-fight win streak and he will undoubtedly look to take his rugged hard-nosed style of fighting right at Mike Swick who is looking at a short turnaround from his last fight in August. Prior to that 2nd round TKO of DaMarques Johnson, injuries and a spell of time in Thailand had kept Swick away from the Octagon since a loss to Paulo Thiago in 2010. If Swick is fully recovered (and his last fight was not a fluke) then things will not be looking good for Matt Brown. This is one of those cases where it is not only “Everything you can do, I can do better” it’s also “I can do those things faster than you.”
Prediction: Look For Mike Swick to pay homage to his nickname by making “Quick” work of Matt Brown. Swick will catch Brown coming in with a barrage of punches forcing a referee stoppage early in round 1 for the TKO victory.
That’s it for our UFC on FOX 5 main card predictions folks. Post your own in the comments section or log-in to our TXMMA Facebook Page and join the discussion with the rest of our community!