By: Felix Rodriguez, Staff Writer
Georges St. Pierre’s long awaited return is a few weeks away so it is only natural that we start speculating on what will happen after he fights Carlos Condit before he has even come back at all.
Prior to his injury GSP had essentially cleaned out the WW division through a series of one-sided wins in which only Jon Fitch looked competitive. GSP’s title-defenses have been criticized for their unremarkable dominance. Despite his success, some MMA fans and members of the media have been critical of St. Pierre’s penchant for safe game plans and his lack of risk-taking during title defenses. Relying on stifling ground and pound to counteract strikers like Dan Hardy or using superb takedown defense and a stiff jab to negate the strength of grapplers like Josh Koscheck en route to predictable one-sided wins have led many to label GSP a ‘boring fighter.’ This perception is not helped by the fact that he has won six consecutive decisions and hasn’t finished an opponent since he stopped Matt Serra with knees in their 2008 rematch.
Boring or not GSP has been a headliner for the UFC since 2006 and ridden his safe fighting formula to the bank in the process. Jon Jones and Anderson Silva may be talked about more lately for endorsement deals and PPV sales, but GSP remains Zuffa’s top selling attraction and main draw. Recent headlines praising Jon Jones’ Nike deal are not without merit, but GSP was the first fighter who brought MMA into the mainstream by securing top tier sponsors. GSP’s carefully crafted squeaky-clean image makes it easy to understand why major companies like Gatorade and Under Armor are firmly backing America’s favorite French-Canadian. Since his 2004 octagon debut GSP has carried himself respectfully when addressing opponents and made himself approachable to fans and media alike. In a lot of ways GSP is what Jon Jones tried to portray himself as when first growing his brand in the UFC, but without Jones’ controversies. While fight fans pay to see what Anderson Silva will do to his next victim or pay to see if Jon Jones will be finally humbled, save for the occasional boo of late, when they pay for a GSP event he is treated as a fan favorite; in pro-wrestling parlance GSP is the face to Jones’ heel and Silva’s anti-hero persona. In GSP’s absence the UFC has lacked a champion who is an established star that is perceived as wholesome or “one of the good guys,” Junior Dos Santos is quickly endearing himself to a broad fan base and Jose Aldo’s mystique is growing by the month, but most of the smaller divisions lack an established champion whose name alone can carry a PPV card yet. The UFC needs those numbers now more than ever to help silence their critics and no matter how UFC 154 plays out Zuffa and GSP are set to cash in on his return.
Condit and GSP are both associated with Greg Jackson and have publicly given credit to his meticulous game planning when discussing victories but neither man will enjoy Jackson’s services when they meet on November 12th, 2012 for the UFC’s Welterweight Championship. So what if GSP loses?
GSP’s injury and Condit’s absentee reign have been frustrating but have also served to create a new landscape of contenders for the WW division. Fighters like recent MW import Demian Maia, guys like Johnny Hendricks and Martin Kampmann, young prospects like Rory McDonald and Erik Silva -until his recent handling by the resurgent Jon Fitch have begun emerging as marketable title challengers. All of a sudden a once languid WW division that was saturated with forced trilogies and questionable title shots is full of new blood and exciting options…while these guys are waiting for their crack at the champ –whoever that may be- they can bide their time by beating on each other. Watching Fitch v. Maia or McDonald v. Kampmann while the welterweight division’s Big Three sort it out at the top would be pretty sweet. Unfortunately for this new batch of contenders, Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit and possibly Anderson Silva all have dibs on GSP and are likely to fight him before they do. How? We are not sure, but predicting the logical and dream-like scenarios that will materialize soon is half of the fun.
Condit and GSP are both associated with Greg Jackson and have publicly given credit to his meticulous game planning when discussing victories but neither man will enjoy Jackson’s services when they meet on November 12th, 2012 for the UFC’s Welterweight Championship. So what if GSP loses? Although this is the least wanted result by all parties not named Condit, it leaves the door open for several lucrative fights. The GSP loss could be attributed to ring rust/premature return and depending on GSP’s showing he could be granted an immediate rematch or be put a win away from another title shot. In this scenario the door is open for Nick Diaz to return from suspension and face either GSP in a grudge match or Condit in a rematch of their first fight. Although the Diaz-GSP fight is what most fans want it makes sense to wait for it to mean more and allow for Condit and Diaz to battle first because waiting gives Zuffa the same match but with a title on the line. If GSP loses to Condit and isn’t given an immediate rematch Condit should fight Diaz and GSP should face one of the new contenders. If he wins, GSP should either rematch Condit for the belt or in the event that Diaz wins the Condit rematch he can defend his belt for the first time against GSP. If GSP loses his return match and chooses to stay in the welterweight division you can expect the next 18 months to serve for the St. Pierre-Condit-Diaz triangle to play out in its entirety with every last drop of squeezable drama extracted from those storylines.
If GSP wins his comeback fight the opportunity for a Condit rematch and possible trilogy is the least likely of scenarios. If MW is not on GSP’s immediate horizon and he beats Condit, GSP’s next match should be Nick Diaz. Saying that St. Pierre is not a fan of the 209 is an understatement and nothing sells a fight better than some good old-fashioned bad blood. I can recall two times in which GSP broke character and was perceived as unlikeable by Zuffa cameras. The first was when he told Matt Hughes he wasn’t impressed by his performance and the other was when Nick Diaz called him out after pasting BJ Penn. GSP reacted to Diaz by pretending to shake in fear, which though silly, showed that Diaz managed to extract an unscripted reaction from the champ. Diaz managed to get under GSP’s skin and questioning his manhood left GSP visibly pissed off. If St. Pierre manages to make a full recovery than he must not allow for his opponents to upset him by capitalizing on mental errors. This already happened once when he underestimated Matt Serra in Houston, TX. For a fighter who relies on specific strategizing and flawless game-planning fighting Diaz could turn into a bad idea because he may be susceptible to Diaz’ taunts. If Diaz goads GSP into leaving an opening by giving him a “Double Stockton Hey-buddy” or spreading his arms and muttering a simple “Come at me, bro” and GSP obliges he could quickly find himself on the wrong end of a TKO or submission. If the prospect of a GSP-Condit trilogy excites you then the shenanigans that Diaz-GSP X3 would produce should make you foam at the mouth a little. But this scenario hinges on GSP defeating Condit at UFC 154 and his staying at WW. What if GSP decides to seek greener (and heavier) pastures?
MMA news outlets have been talking about a rumored Anderson Silva fight for quite some time and we think GSP is his guy. If our sources are correct and GSP does fight Silva at Cowboys Stadium the UFC will have a golden opportunity to address another area that needs some attention: The Ultimate Fighter. Leaving FX’s Friday schedule and adding Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen as couches will give the series a nice boost, but they will need a nice follow up to keep those numbers up. Brent Brookhouse explained how The Ultimate Fighter has shown consistent rating declines except during TUF 14 & 12. TUF 14 had Kimbo and TUF 12 had GSP. Having Silva and GSP as the faces of TUF would be extremely beneficial for FX, Zuffa, fans and quite possibly world peace as well. Maybe not the latter but if Silva v. GSP is going to happen it will require a large financial investment so having an opportunity to use TUF as a marketing tool for an hour a week on network television for Zuffa to cash in on this rare fight and simultaneously help its flagship TV series turn the corner is something definitely worth considering. And we fight fans can only cross our fingers and hope for.