April 20, 2012 – The UFC returns to pay-per-view for the first time in about six weeks with UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans broadcasting from the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday night.
As everyone not living under a rock should know by now, the main event of this card is a UFC light heavyweight title clash between two former teammates in champion Jon “Bones” Jones and challenger Rashad “Suga” Evans. Aside from those two, the rest of the card is devoid of name-worthy star power but full of young fighters looking to make their names and climb up the ranks along with some older veterans looking to stay gainfully employed.
Without further adieu, let’s just break down the entire card in further detail with our analysis and predictions for what you can expect tomorrow night on PPV, FX, and Facebook.
UFC 145 – Main Card Analysis and Predictions (PPV)
Much of the build-up leading up to this fight has been centered on the fact that these two are former friends and teammates. Not it’s finally time for all that chatter to stop. There will be no time left for talking when these two finally step (or crawl) into the cage for the main event of the evening this Saturday night.
As it stands now, Jon “Bones” Jones is the heavy favorite headed into this fight with many Vegas sports books having him at 5-to-1 or 6-to-1 odds. The young phenom (youngest UFC champ ever) has dominated every fight in his career so far with a record that should be unblemished minus a disqualification against Matt Hamill in 2009. He’s undoubtedly made his case as a top-3 PFP fighter after beating Shogun, Rampage, and Lyoto in his last three but is he a that much of a favorite headed into this one? I don’t think so.
Rashad Evans is a former champion himself and has only lost once in his career – when the unorthodox Lyoto Machida bewildered him to take his belt at UFC 98, also in 2009. Since then Rashad has reinvented himself and looks far-improved from the fighter he was earlier on in his career. Impressive performances over Tito Ortiz and Phil Davis have proved that he’s the best he’s ever been.
Make no mistake about it. We’ve got a fight on our hands and a very interesting one at that.
Jon Jones will have physicality on his side with his extra-long reach and upper body strength in the clinch. If he use creative striker from distance and tie Rashad up when they’re close, he’ll have the edge in winning this fight. That’s easier said than done though and Rashad will surely look to test his takedown defense along with his chin whenever he gets close enough to touch him. If he can weather those storms and play keep-away or take Evans down and control from the top, then he wins this fight and could very well finish it.
As for Rashad, the challenger’s route to victory in this one may be straight-forward, meaning he might look to test Jones immediately rather than wait for him to get into a rhythm. That where he (Jones) poses plenty of trouble for his opponents. Fighting backwards against the champ has been a death sentence for everyone he’s faced. Moving forward against him may offer up a chance or two in this one. It’s how Lyoto was able to win a round in their fight before he got caught. It might be how Rashad can put Jon in trouble and win this fight if he’s able to do this effectively.
I definitely think Rashad Evans has a fighting chance in this fight but logically, Jon Jones should have most every advantage. Those 5-to-1 odds don’t matter too much when you’re just picking win/lose.
Prediction: Jon Jones by TKO (strikes on the ground to finish) in RD3.
170 lbs.: Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills
The co-main event of the evening features “the next Georges St. Pierre” as Rory MacDonald has been coined by several people, including UFC president Dana White, front man Joe Rogan, and GSP himself. The comparisons may prove to be legit down the road for the 22 year old Canadian. He’s showed impressively so far in his young career, going so far as to have beaten Mike Pyle and Nate Diaz in his last two fights after progressively increasing his level of competition on the way into the UFC. His only loss so far is to current welterweight #1 contender Carlos Condit in a ‘Fight of the Night’ matchup he was winning until he got caught.
He’ll be making his first return back after almost a year off due to injury in this one and will be taking on British standout Che Mills.
As part of this new generation of MMA where one doesn’t begin by specializing in one area, rather working to get good at them all from the jump, Rory will be a danger to Mills wherever the fight takes place. His wrestling is solid, his striking is top-notch, and he can submit off his back or anywhere else as well. Meanwhile, Mills will give himself the best chance of winning if he can dominate the action on his feet, just like he did against Chris Cope this past November to win KO of the Night honors in his UFC debut.
Rory MacDonald is no Chris Cope though. Look for him to put on a definitive statement in this win and finish off Che on the ground after outclassing him on his fit.
Prediction: Rory MacDonald by TKO, RD1.
265 lbs.: Brendan Schaub vs. Ben Rothwell
The fourth fight on the PPV card offers up some heavyweight action between two mid-carders looking to fight their way back up the ranks.
Colorado-based Brendan Schaub was his way there with four straight wins after losing the first fight of his career to Roy Nelson but suffered a major setback last August when he lost to Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 134 in Rio. He hasn’t fought since but will surely look to get back to his winning ways in this one. Meanwhile, former IFL fighter Ben Rothwell will look to get his own career back on track after losing to the ever-popular Mark Hunt this past September.
Brendan Schaub should have the edge in this fight considering his athleticism and skill set. Despite his loss to Nogueira, Brendan does boast an impressive striking arsenal and has the ability to land KO punches of his own when he’s not leaving himself open to counters. He’s also pretty good on the ground having been trained in BJJ by Amal Easton up there in the Rockies. As for Ben Rothwell, one could consider him a grind-it-out type of fighter who likes to mix up his wrestling and boxing to tire out his opponents.
I’m not entirely certain he’ll have much success doing that to Schaub. In fact, I consider this to be somewhat of a “safe” fight for the Colorado native and a “must win” for his opponent who’s lost 2 out of 3 in his UFC run. Ben will no doubt fight tooth-and-nail in this one but if he sticks to his game plan and picks his battles, Brendan should win this one going away.
Prediction: Brendan Schaub by Unanimous Decision.
135 lbs.: Miguel Torres vs. Michael McDonald
This bout between wunderkind Michael McDonald and scrappy former WEC champ Miguel Torres is our pick for Fight of the Night.
It’s easy to forget that Miguel was once debatably the most dominant fighter in the WEC as their longtime bantamweight champion after a so-so last couple of years but he’s still a dangerous fighter for anyone at his weight provided he fights up to his capability. Some may say he’s actually been too aggressive in searching for submissions rather than win safely over the last few years but he’s said recently that he has to fight smarter fights. When he does, he can use his combination of excellent boxing along with his submission game to give his opponents fits.
His opponent Michael McDonald has been hailed as one of the brightest young stars in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Like Torres, the Californian possesses an excellent combination of Muay Thai striking skills to go along with a proficient ground game. The BJJ brown belt holds a win over Texan Edwin Figueroa but this will be his first fight against someone with a Zuffa championship pedigree
When it comes down to it, this one is going to be a close fight that could be won by either man – one fighting to keep his legacy going and the other looking to build his. Truly a coin flip either way but we’ll go with the new blood to push through in this one.
Prediction: Mike McDonald by split decision.
145 lbs.: Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin
Two featherweights are up in the second fight of the PPV card with Canadian Mark Hominick taking on Filipino-Hawaiian Eddie Yagin.
Mark Hominick will no doubt be fighting for his life to avoid the dreaded three-fight losing streak in this one. His last two fights have been against top competition though in Jose Aldo and the “Korean Zombie” Chan-Sun Jung. Prior to that he won 5-straight so hopefully his short-term memory is well… short. If he uses his vaunted kickboxing to his advantage in this one, he’ll have a good chance of winning. As for Eddie Yagin, well he’s not a household name just yet but he does possess a decent overall game that could cause Hominick fits if he can impose his will. He’s also coming off a loss of his own to Junior Assunção in his UFC debut so he’ll be fighting hard to make a positive impression with this one.
While Yagin is no slouch, this fight is more a rebuilding fight for Mark Hominick. The Canadian should be able to dominate this fight on the feet while avoiding the ground fight, though he’s proficient enough to handle it if it goes there. Look for him to cruise in this one.
Prediction: Mark Hominick by TKO, RD2.
155 lbs.: Mark Bocek vs. John Alessio
The opening bout of the night should present an exciting scrap between two longtime veterans in Mark Bocek and John Alessio.
Mark Bocek has long been considered one of the more wily submission-based fighters in the lightweight division and has scored some impressive submissions in the past, like his arm-triangle against fellow grappler Dustin Hazelett at UFC 124. The main knock on him is that he hasn’t been able to come through against the top echelon of the division – losing to guys like Benson Henderson, Jim Miller, and Frankie Edgar.
Meanwhile, John Alessio has made a career out of MMA and has literally fought in every type of show imaginable since he debuted way back in 1998. He’s actually coming back to the UFC for his third stint in the organization after first appearing at UFC 26 (loss to Pat Militech) and coming back at UFC 60 to lose to Diego Sanchez back in 2006. He’ll be hoping that third time is a charm with this fight.
John Alessio is such a gamer and well-rounded veteran. He may be a bad matchup for Bocek – who’ll have a harder time catching him in a submission as opposed to many younger guys in this sport. Look for John to grind him out en route to a three-round decision.
Prediction: John Alessio by unanimous decision.
UFC 145 – Undercard Quick Picks (FX)
Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs
6’7” large Travis “HAPA” Browne is one of the brightest young stars in the heavyweight division with 10 stoppage wins and one-punch highlight KO over Stefan Struve. Meanwhile, “Grave Digger” Chad Griggs has an iron chin but is largely just a scrappy gatekeeper type. This won’t be close.
Prediction: Travis Browne by TKO, RD2.
Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson
Wonderboy! Carlos Machado-trained Stephen Thompson impressed with a beautiful head kick knockout over Dan Stittgen in his UFC debut. He’ll be getting a step up in this one with UFC survivor Matt Brown – who’s proven his nickname “immortal” to be legit in the sense that he just refuses to be kicked off the island. Matt is a scrappy fighter but Thompson should be able to pick him apart.
Prediction: Stephen Thompson by TKO, RD1.
John Makdessi vs. Anthony Njokuani
John Makdessi’s striking has looked good in his first two fights – wins over Pat Audinwood and Kyle Watson. He lost via submission to Dennis Hallman in his last fight but he’s looking to come back in this one. Meanwhile, longtime Texan Anthony Njokuani also suffered a loss in his last bout to Danny Castillo but this is a much better matchup for him.
Prediction: Anthony Njokuani by KO, RD2.
Mac Danzig vs. Efrain Escudero
This is going to be battle between two longtime veterans looking to keep their names relevant at this level of the sport. Our guess is that Mac Danzig finds a way to survive and win out in this one while Efrain Escudero will be cut by the UFC for the second time after yet another loss.
Prediction: Mac Danzig by TKO, RD3.
UFC 145 – Undercard Quick Picks (Facebook)
Keith Wisniewski vs. Chris Clements
Keith Wisniewski should have the experience edge in this one after facing tougher competition overall throughout his almost 15 year career in the sport. Other than that, there really isn’t too much to this warm-up fight scheduled for Facebook.
Prediction: Keith Wisniewski by unanimous decision.
Marcus Brimage vs. Maximo Blanco
TUF 14 vet Marcus Brimage opens the action at UFC 145 against Venezuelan import and noted striking specialist Maximo Blanco. It’s easy to say who has the cooler name headed into this fight but the jury is still out on who has a better MMA game. For our money, we’ll go with the more experienced Blanco to win out in his UFC debut.
Prediction: Maximo Blanco by TKO, RD1.