February 24, 2012 – Finally…. The Ultimate Fighting Championship has come back to Japan! With respect to Dream, Shooto, and everyone else out there, it truly has been far too long since top-level MMA has graced the land of the rising sun. …Five long years to be exact since the Zuffa purchase of the Pride Fighting Championship. Hopefully a new legacy will be built this Saturday when the UFC hits the legendary Saitama Super Arena.
UFC 144 will feature a whopping 7 fights on the PPV main card – making it a longer night than usual for most with the event expected to take four hours rather than the customary three or so. Four other additional undercard bouts are set to be broadcast for free on the FX cable network with the opening bout of the evening set to kick things off on Facebook. Let’s take a look at every fight of the night in-depth after a quick look at the entire card.
155 lbs. – Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson (title bout)
205 lbs. Ryan Bader vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
265 lbs. Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt
170 lbs. Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
185 lbs. Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami
145 lbs. Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
155 lbs. Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis
PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
145 lbs. Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
135 lbs. Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto
185 lbs. Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda
155 lbs. Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
170 lbs. Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang
UFC 144 – Main Card Preview and Predictions
155 lbs. – Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson (title bout)
Despite being the reigning UFC lightweight champion, it’s a long time since Frankie Edgar went into a fight as a favorite. For the past two years, he’s been looked at as the perennial underdog while battling against the likes of Gray Maynard and B.J. Penn. Vanquishing both of those challenges in five long fights, “The Answer” finally gets to take on a different look this time around against Benson Henderson, a former WEC product who earned this shot through three straight octagon wins over Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, and Clay Guida.
Looking at this matchup on paper, fans can expect this to be a very exciting main event.
Frankie Edgar has been successful against Maynard and Penn in large part to his pace-setting quickness and a crisp boxing game that perfectly complements his abilities as a wrestler, which is the base that initially allowed him to be successful in MMA. Not be discounted also is his heart and courage, something that showed in his amazing display of resiliency against Maynard in their first matchup back in January of 2011.
As for the challenger Ben Henderson, he possesses a different array of tools that both Maynard and Penn, but could be equally, if not more, dangerous in this fight. A wrestler like Edgar when he initially jumped into MMA, Henderson has also adapted well in developing as a submission artist (BJJ brown belt) and striker in his 6 years participating in the sport. He’s well-rounded both offensively and defensively, not to mention some other attributes that make him hard to finish. They don’t call him “Bendo” for nothing.
Looking at the overall body of work we’ve seen from both of these men, it’s clear they are both willing and able to go the full five rounds if necessary. That’s a good possibility considering their proficiency at not getting finished. It could definitely play out that way given Frankie’s movement and staying on the outside with his boxing while not getting taken down or getting up if he does get pushed to the mat. Otherwise, he could land a blow on Benson like he did to Maynard at UFC 136 in Houston. I see the former as being the likely conclusion with Edgar winning the decision. The champ is by no means a lock to win this fight but Henderson will really have to work on tying Edgar up and controlling him like he did Clay Guida if he plans on winning this one. That’s definitely a possibility but I just don’t see that game plan working this time around. They don’t call Frankie “The Answer” for nothing either.
Prediction – Frankie Edgar over Benson Henderson by decision.
205 lbs. Ryan Bader vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
Rampage Jackson got one of his biggest wishes when he was scheduled for this card after his title fight loss to Jon Jones back in September. Japan (Pride FC) is the place where he got his start, made his name, created his kids, and probably had a whole lot of fun in his storied career. That definitely explains him practically begging to get on this card ever since it got announced. Good for him that he’s on it and he’s sure to be one of the bigger fan favorites for those in attendance this weekend.
This fight poses an interesting matchup stylistically and one that should favor the hard-hitting Quinton Jackson. He’s no stranger to taking on strong wrestlers after matchups with Jones, Matt Hamill, Rashad Evans, and Dan Henderson in recent years. He’s also no stranger to fighting overseas and hits just as hard as he ever did. Despite his loss to “Bones” at UFC 135, it was said that Rampage was in the best shape he’s been in years and we don’t see his motivating curtailing in this one as he gets to fight in front of his favorite fans.
As for Ryan Bader, well he’ll be in his biggest fight yet this time after coming back from two losses in a row (Jones, Tito Ortiz) against Jason Brilz at UFC 139. He’s no slouch after winning the first 12 fights of his career but he’s definitely still on his way back after that rough patch in early-mid 2011.
This fight is going to pit the wrestler in Bader against the counter-wrestler in Jackson. The X-factor in this one may be who gets the better of that exchange… or it could be who lands the one that cracks the other’s jaw first. In that type of fight, I’ve got to favor the heavier hitter with the thicker skull in Rampage. A lot of prognosticators out there will say that Bader will be able to hold down Jackson in a three-round fight. That prediction would make sense but how could we pick against Rampage in his adopted homeland?
Prediction – Quinton Jackson over Ryan Bader by knockout.
265 lbs. Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt
If there was ever matchup on this card that reminds me of Pride FC, it’s this one. It’s not entirely because of Mark Hunt (JMMA, K-1 vet) but rather the matchup between Hunt and Kongo in particular that gets me. Both these guys are hard-hitting behemoths that like to strike. This bout may not have any immediate ramifications as far as the UFC heavyweight title picture goes but at least there’s a good chance that somebody will be KTFO when all is said and done.
Seriously, this one is going to be a highly-entertaining affair unless it miraculously ends up in the later rounds and both guys are too tired to do any damage. If it does get to that point, the odds shift a great deal towards the Frenchman’s favor for the decision. We want to pick Hunt in this one but sadly enough, the logical play is definitely Kongo for the win.
Prediction – Cheick Kongo over Mark Hunt by TKO.
170 lbs. Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Once a highly-touted prospect, Yoshihiro Akiyama is now teetering on perhaps being cut after three losses in a row to Belfort, Bisping, and Leben. Three ‘fight of the night’ bonuses have no doubt played a part in keeping him off the UFC chopping block to date but a fourth loss in a row could have him voted off the island in his own part of the world with this one.
As for Jake Shields, well he’s also looking to make his way back after a rough 2011 that includes a two-fight losing streak (his first losses since 2004) and the death of his father. He’ll be looking to move on in this one.
Examining the skills of both men in this bout, there’s a high likelihood that this one will be contested primarily on the ground. Though he likes to strike, “Sexyama” started out as a judo expert (Olympic level). He’ll need all that to counter Shields’ takedown and ground prowess. Look for Jake to try and knot up Akiyama on the ground and catch him for the submission in transition. If he doesn’t get it, he’s good enough to maintain top control in order to gain the decision victory.
Prediction – Jake Shields over Yoshihiro Akiyama by decision.
185 lbs. Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami
With respect to the skills of both men, this matchup isn’t exactly the most exciting offering out there. Yushin Okami is a highly-skilled middleweight but fell down the ladder of contention after he got his shot against divisional kingpin Anderson Silva back at UFC 134. Meanwhile, Tim Boetsch has looked good since dropping from 205 (beaten Kendall Grove, Nick Ring) but hasn’t generated a lot of buzz with those performances either.
This one could turn out to be a grappling match with two guys that like to work from the clinch and that’s exactly what we predict – a grind-it-out type of matchup that isn’t necessarily going to get fans up out of their seats. To his credit, Tim is the type of fighter that will force the action but Okami may be too good to get beaten and bullied like Grove and Ring did.
Prediction – Yushin Okami over Tim Boetsch by decision.
145 lbs. Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
Long thought of as one of the top 145’ers in the world while fighting in Japan, Hioki made the move to the UFC last year and immediately jumped towards the top of the UFC featherweight division by default, unimpressive victory over George Roop notwithstanding. There’s simply not that many guys out there that can challenge champ Jose Aldo after he beat Chad Mendes. Not to say that Hioki is that guy just yet but he’s got one the more impressive resumes in the division thus far.
In order to get that title shot (or at least a #1 contender spot vs. Dustin Poirer or Eric Koch), Hioki will have to get past Bart Palaszewski, an always tough veteran that hasn’t quite cracked the top tier in his own career despite looking like a contender at times. Bart is a tough striker (knocked out Tyson Griffin) but can he get past Hioki? He definitely has that chance in this fight, my “upset alert” for the evening.
Prediction – Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki by decision.
155 lbs. Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis
This bout is definitely our sleeper for fight of the night. It wasn’t too long ago when Anthony Pettis was supposed to be the guy getting the shot at the title after the UFC’s consolidation of the WEC into their ranks back in 2010 and his own victory over Ben Henderson to win that last WEC 155 belt. Unfortunately for him, Frankie Edgar and Grey Maynard fought to a draw and he opted to fight Clay Guida instead of wait. A few twists of fate later and its Henderson that’s getting the shot instead of the last guy to beat him! No doubt he’s looking to climb back up in this one.
As for Joe Lauzon, well he too is looking to keep climbing up the ladder after submitting an over-confident Melvin Guillard in Houston this past October. Known as a quick starter, he’ll definitely be gunning for Pettis’ head (or arm or leg) in this one early and we’re sure Anthony will be quick to oblige. The x-factor here is whether J-Lau can keep up with Pettis’ speed cardio. “Showtime” can go the entire fight. Because of those attributes, Pettis goes into this one as the favorite in our book but it will definitely be a fight to watch out for.
Prediction – Anthony Pettis over Joe Lauzon by TKO.
UFC 144 – Undercard Quick Picks
145 lbs. Takanori Gomi over Eiji Mitsuoka by TKO.
135 lbs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto over Vaughan Lee by knockout.
185 lbs. Riki Fukuda over Steve Cantwell by submission.
155 lbs. Takeya Mizugaki over Chris Cariaso by decision.
170 lbs. Tiequan Zhang over Issei Tamura by submission.
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