LAS VEGAS, NV, December 27, 2011 – “It doesn’t get any bigger than this…” That’s the tagline for this Friday’s UFC 141 fight card featuring Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem and it couldn’t be any more accurate. Aside from being a definite curiosity amongst hardcore and casual fans alike, this bout also has championship implications with the winner expected to be the next to face current heavyweight kingpin Junior dos Santos when he gets back from injury sometime around March.
Aside from the main event, the card also features a solid if not spectacular undercard with some high output fighters set to duke it out, including Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone in the co-main event of the evening. Joining Nate and Cowboy as is Texan Johny Hendricks who’ll be taking on perennial top welterweight contender Jon Fitch in what promises to be his stiffest challenge yet. Bouts featuring Vladimir Matyushenko taking on Alexander Gustafsson and Nam Phan taking on Jimy Hettes complete the main card on PPV.
Let’s break down the entire lineup for UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem and offer up our predictions on all the action set to go down in Las Vegas this Friday night.
UFC 141 – Main Card (PPV)
Preview: The irresistible force meets the immovable object in a fight many in the world have long seen as a fantasy matchup, never likely to happen. Someway, somehow, the stars have finally aligned though with Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem on the verge of colliding. ‘The Reem will be making his UFC debut after a four year undefeated streak. He’ll also be entering the octagon as the last Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion ever and with a K-1 Grand Prix title to his belt. As for Lesnar, he’ll be making his return to the cage having completely healed after a second bout with diverticulitis. The former UFC champ was last seen in the cage at UFC 121 where he lost his Heavyweight belt to Cain Velasquez.
So how does this fight go? According to fellow heavyweight Frank Mir, we could be looking at an upset in this one with the heavily-muscled Overeem falling prey to Lesnar down the stretch. Here’s what Frank had to say to “The MMA Insiders” on ESPN1100/98.9 about the event:
“Brock doesn’t shoot that low. He’ll put his forehead in your chest, and he’s going to run you through. If he’s not able to take you down with that initial blast, he’s going to run you against the cage. Then he’s going to rip your legs out from under you. Now, you should have gotten taken down in the middle of the area, but instead, you’ve been taken down against the cage. Speaking from experience, that sucks. Now, you have a guy who is not a black belt in jiu-jitsu and who is not a wrestling All-American who is going to be able to get back to his feet, so what does he do? Are you going to try to tell me he’s going to wrestle with a national champion wrestler for five minutes? His cardio is going to suck. I’ve seen guys with muscles like that, and that’s why he slows down.”
Most prognosticators have Overeem winning this fight in vicious and impressive fashion. He clearly has the striking advantage but can he connect on Brock early and often enough to hurt him before the inevitable takedown? And if he does get put on his back, does he have the physical dexterity to threaten submissions from the bottom or get back on his feet? What if this turns into a war of attrition and it goes past the first 10 minutes? Will Alistair still have the power to KO Brock or will Lesnar gas in his efforts to control Overeem on the ground? It’s doubtful that it gets to the third but either way, we agree with Mir’s assessment and are picking Brock Lesnar in a statement-making upset in his return on his way to a showdown against Junior dos Santos.
Prediction: Brock Lesnar by TKO in round 2.
Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz (14-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-3)
Preview: Oh snap, it’s a surefire FOTN candidate with this one pitting Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone against Nate Diaz. That “Stockton Bad Boy” image doesn’t intimidate Cerrone one bit and he’ll be ready to win his seventh fight in a row come fight night in his bid to secure a title shot in the crowded 155 division. As far as Diaz, he’s out here to prove he’s the real deal one again after scoring submission of the nigh honors at UFC 135 against Takanori Gomi.
Stylistically, this is the type of fight that can end up anywhere and it could be fireworks no matter if it’s a grappling match or a striking match. The difference in this one could be Cerrone’s cardio advantage. Nate is a triathalon competitor just like his brother Nick and certainly doesn’t lack in the endurance department but he has slowed in some of his past fights. Meanwhile, Donald is as steady as they come and score points when they count most. That gives him the edge in our book for this win and a title shot in the future.
Prediction: Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision.
Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch (23-3-1) vs. Johny Hendricks (11-1)
Preview: Jon Fitch has gone 6 fights in a row since his title shot loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87. Now he’s trying to knock barge into the title picture once again while the UFC has thrown yet another tough challenge his way. This time it’s in the form of Texas-based wrestler Johny Hendricks of Team Takedown. Johny is coming two impressive wins over some exceptional grapplers in Mike Pierce and TJ Waldburger heading into this one and usually has the upper hand when facing fellow grapplers. We’ll have to see if he can keep that advantage against Fitch though. A former Purdue wrestling captain, Fitch is one of the premier grinders in the game and that’s what has made him so successful since he debuted in the UFC over 6 years ago.
Fitch should undoubtedly be the favorite in this one with his wear-you-down and grind-you-out skills but Hendricks is easy guy to keep on the floor. On top of that, he’s got one-hitter-quitter type of power in his punches as evident by his KO of TJ earlier this year. Is that enough to catch Jon though? Texas will certainly be behind him but until he proves different, Jon Fitch is the likely favorite to win this one via another decision finish.
Prediction: Jon Fitch by unanimous decision.
Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Preview: This bout delivers an interesting contrast of youth versus experience between Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko and Alexander Gustafsson. Heading into this one, both guys are looking to prove the same thing – that they came compete at the highest level. Matyushenko is coming off one of the most spectacular highlights of his 14 year MMA career in his 20 second KO of Jason Brilz this past April. At 5-1 in his last six with his lone loss coming to Jon Jones, it’s no stretch of the imagination to say “The Janitor” can still compete with the best young guys the sport has to offer. At the very least, he’s one tough gatekeeper. Meanwhile, Alexander Gustafsson has been on a hot streak of his own since entering the UFC. 4 wins out of 5 octagon appearances to be exact with his lone loss being to Phil Davis. The 24 year old is 12-1 overall and considered by many to be one of the top 205 prospects in the world. He’ll get a chance to validate that status this Friday night against a very unwilling challenger.
Both these guys have been showcasing auxiliary parts of their game recently, with Matyushenko showing he has knockout power and boxing to go along with his well-known grappling acumen and the 6’5″ Gustafsson showing he has the chops to finish things on the ground despite ending the majority of his earlier fights by KO/TKO. With this fight, it’s whoever can most effectively inflict their strong points on the other that will win. Let’s not kid ourselves. Alex isn’t going to outgrapple Vladimir and vice versa with the striking. Gustafsson would be best served to keep his distance and outstrike his opponent and Matyushenko’s best chance to win this one coming on the mat. With that being said, there’s a lot of reach and 16 years of age difference in this one. One of those is most certainly an advantage and, renaissance period none withstanding, the second usually is as well. It will definitely be an interesting fight all around but look for the young lion to prevail when all is said and done.
Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by TKO, round 2.
Featherweight bout: Nam Phan (17-9) vs. Jimy Hettes (9-0)
Preview: Everybody knows Nam Phan by now after his FOTN efforts against Leonard Garcia, most recently in Houston. Meanwhile, not that many people now Jim Hettes just yet but he’s an undefeated fighter coming of a win over “Bruce Leroy” Alex Caceres who’s one all nine of his fights by submission. With that being said, Nam Phan is a more than capable grappler and has never been subbed in his whole career. Very impressive considering he’s been a pro since 2001.
If Jim Hettes is “for real” as they say, a win over Nam Phan would go a long way toward proving that. Nam has lost more than he’s won lately (5 out of his last 8 fights) but he’s still a wily veteran and not prone to getting caught in anything silly. Hettes is going to have to show an expanded skill set along with his submission prowess to win this one. Now can he do it? We can’t be certain until it happens but our money is on yes.
Prediction: Jimmy Hettes by submission in the second round.
UFC 141 – Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
Preview: This bout should be no less than an exciting lead-in towards the PPV broadcast with Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson taking on Junior Assunção in his second fight back since returning to the UFC at featherweight this past September. Since his season win at TUF 9, Pearson has developed a reputation as a fighter that always bring it and has 2 FOTN awards to his credit. Meanwhile, Junior has won 7 straight bouts and isn’t likely to want to lay down for his opponent in this one.
Pearson proved to the world that he’s a force to be reckoned with through his fight with the highly-favored Edson Barboza. He may have lost the decision in that fight but he looked good in doing so. That fight showed why he should be the clear favorite in this fight. He’s aggressive, always comes forward, and his standup is something to be reckoned with. He’s also good on the ground. Don’t get me wrong. Assunção is also a force on the feet and on the ground but he hasn’t proven he can win against top competition yet on the big stage just yet while Pearson has.
Prediction: Ross Pearson by unanimous decision.
Lightweight bout: Anthony Njokuani (14-5-1NC) vs. Danny Castillo (12-4)
Preview: One of Saekson Janjira’s original protégés is back this Friday with Anthony Njokuani taking on late replacement Danny Castillo. He’ll be looking for his second win in a row after taking out Englishman Andrew Winner at UFC 132 in what Joe Rogan called one of the best performances of his career. His opponent Castillo is also coming off a solid performance against another TUF-vet in Shamar Bailey where he scored the TKO finish for his 4th win in five tries. Danny Castillo is actually a tougher opponent than Ramsey Nijem, the guy he is replacing against Njokuani.
“Last Call” Castillo is a scrappy wrestler with above-average boxing out of Team Alpha Male while Njokuani is a spectacular striker that’s developed above-average takedown defense. This is going to be a tough fight for Anthony considering he hasn’t faced anyone with Castillo’s grappling acumen since Shane Roller at WEC 48. The Californian will look to take the Nigerian Nightmare down and Anthony’s chances are predicated on whether he can keep this fight on the feet long enough to hurt his opponent. Danny’s been KO’d before (Anthony Pettis, WEC 47) but it doesn’t happen very often. Stylistically, he’s definitely the favorite in this fight though we’d like for the Texan to pull off the victory.
Prediction: Danny Castillo by submission in round 2.
UFC 141 – Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim (14-1-1, 1 NC) vs. Sean Pierson (11-5)
Preview: Dong Hyun Kim aka “The Stun Gun” makes his return to the octagon for the first time since running into Carlos Condit’s knee at UFC 132. Prior to that, he was able to beat guys like Amir Sadollah and Nate Diaz so he’s no pushover and will be looking to prove that against the Canadian, Sean Pierson.
A decorated judo expert, Kim will be likely be involved in a battle of clinches against Sean, who counts Greco-Roman wrestling as his base. Both guys are coming off the wrong end of knockouts so I don’t see either wanting to throw caution to the wind in this one early. The later the fight goes though and the more “The Stun Gun” should find himself comfortable though. Look for him to take out Pierson once he finds his rhythm to get back on track as a legit contender.
Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim by TKO in round 2.
Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann (13-2) vs. Efrain Escudero (18-3)
Preview: Set aside back-to-back losses to 170 contenders Martin Kampmann and Paulo Thiago and Jacob Volkmann has proven to be a very formidable fighter within the UFC. He’s actually won four straight at 155 heading into this one as he looks to be recognized as a legit contender in the crowded 155 division. Meanwhile, former TUF winner Efrain Escudero will be returning to the UFC after a six-fight exile onto the regional circuit that saw him go 5-1. A win here for either fighter could spell divisional relevancy once more for either man in the crowded 155 division.
It’s good to see Escudero earn his way back into the UFC but this is definitely a tough way to go about making a comeback. Jacob will likely be the stronger fighter walking in and although both fighters are known as strong grapplers, Volkmann will definitely be the more overpowering one. Efrain’s got some decent GNP and submission skills but it’s doubtful that he can put Volkmann down in a vulnerable enough position to capitalize.
Prediction: Jacob Volkmann by unanimous decision.
Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle (5-3) vs. Luis Ramos (19-7)
Preview: It’s a battle of a former TUF contestant (Riddle) against a former Shooto Champ (Ramos) but it’s also a battle of two guys fighting for their jobs in this one. For Matt Riddle, he’s looking to erase the prospect of three losses in a row to keep his head off the UFC chopping block while Luis Ramos will be looking to win his first bout in the octagon after getting TKO’d by Erick Silva in his UFC debut.
Riddle has always relied on his solid wrestling to get him through while “Beicao” has been slightly better-rounded with a combination of striking and BJJ skills. The Brazilian also has three times the amount of fights as his American opponent. It’s possible that he hasn’t faced a wrestler like Matt but he’s no stranger to the mat should he end up there. I think Luis’ experience gives him the edge in this one and gets him back on the winning track in a messy three-round fight.
Prediction: Luis Ramos by unanimous decision.
Featherweight bout: Manvel Gamburyan (11-6) vs. Diego Nunes (16-2)
Preview: This bout could spell disaster for Manvel Gamburyan if he comes out on the wrong end when it’s all said and done. The former TUF 5 finalist has lost 2 in a row after winning 3 straight at featherweight. Meanwhile, his opponent Diego Nunes will also be looking to bounce back from his loss to Kenny Florian after winning 3 of his own bouts at 145. Manny has always been a fan favorite due to his “go for broke” style that’s often resulted in exciting fights. Meanwhile, Nunes was also a finisher earlier in his career but kind of lost his way in his last 7 bouts within the WEC/UFC. Is he fighting more conservatively on the big stage? That’s up for debate but if anything can stop his string of decision finishes it’s this fight against “The Anvil,” a fighter who goes out with his shield or on it.
Examining at his bouts against Mike Brown and Kenny Florian, its probably a logical conclusion to say Diego Nunes is a little too much for Manvel Gamburyan at this point. Not only is Nunes the more technically refined fighter but he’s also extremely hard to finish (never been…). The Brazilian should get back on the winning track with this one and may even get the finish should his opponent get too reckless behind on points late into the fight.
Prediction: Diego Nunes by TKO in round 3.
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