November 18, 2011 – We’ve come to the pinnacle of our pre-fight coverage for UFC 139 here at TXMMA.com with this preview of the main card. Our picks for the undercard were posted yesterday but here’s our preview and predictions of the main card headlined by the battle of two former PRIDE FC stars in Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva taking on Cung Le, and more.
Feel free to chime in with your own analysis after reading ours and comment with your own picks. We’ll see who’s right when the PPV gets underway tomorrow night in San Jose!
UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson – Main Card (PPV) – Preview and Predictions
Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Finally, the paths of these two former PRIDE stars cross after years of winning titles and gaining accolades between them. As we said in our pre-fight piece on Shogun, these two have been competing on the same cards and often in the same division since roughly 2003. Henderson has even had the pleasure of beating Shogun’s brother Murilio “Ninja” Rua at Pride 17 way back in 2001.
Now 10 years later, “Shogun” will be coming in to the UFC 139 main event looking to repay the favor with a potential future title shot on the line.
Looking at this matchup, it’s hard to predict who will come out the victor. Both men have that championship pedigree. In fact, Henderson will come into this fight as the last Strikeforce middleweight champion after beating Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante and subsequently vanquishing Fedor on his way to the UFC. Meanwhile, Shogun has won multiple belts in Pride and later winning the UFC belt in the crowded 205 division. Both have lost as well. Henderson most recently lost to Jake Shields in 2010. Rua’s last 3 losses have been to former champs Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida, and Forrest Griffin. He’s already got one back from Forrest and is looking to chase the other 2 on the way to another belt.
As far as Saturday night, who comes out the winner will come down to finding out the answer to a few questions. Will Shogun’s speed be enough to outclass Henderson? Dan says “no” but that remains to be answered. Will that right hand of Henderson’s be able to land square on the chin of his aggressive opponent? If it does, that’ll spell “good night Irene” even though Schiavello won’t be there to say it. For us, the bottom line comes down to who can impose their will and come forward best without getting KO’d for three straight rounds. Oddly enough, it’s the 41 year old Henderson that has the better cardio to succeed in that respect.
Prediction: Dan Henderson by knockout, RD3.
Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Five years ago this would have been a really fun fight and it still will be this Saturday night but not without a little bit of sadness mixed in.
I say that because this is going to be the war between two contrasting strikers it always would have been with both guys bringing all their tools to the party but Wanderlei leaving his once durable chin at home. While his heart and fighting spirit remains as undaunted as ever, the fact remains that “The Axe Murderer” has lost 6 out of his last 8 fights. It’s almost ironic that at this stage of his career, Silva is turning into the legend he himself beating three times in Kazushi Sakuraba.
Everybody loves Wanderlei but nobody wants to see him get hurt anymore.
The old battle axe got viciously KO’d at the hands of his last opponent Chris Leben and the same thing might happen from the feet of Cung Le. The “human highlight reel” and San Shou expert is simply a tough matchup for him. Silva could try and take this fight to the ground but past scouting reports have painted the Vietnamese fighter as a better-than-average wrestler. Besides, Silva doesn’t have it in him to purposely take fights to the ground. Anything could happen with 4OZ gloves but all signs point to a grim ending for the big-time fan favorite.
Prediction: Cung Le by KO, RD2.
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
What’s more fun than watch 135’ers do their thing in the cage? Well… maybe a few things but still. This is going to be a great fight. It always is when Urijah Faber is fighting and Brian Bowles is exciting in his own right.
This is an interesting matchup considering that Bowles has only lost to one man in Dominick Cruz, who also had Faber’s number. Both guys are tough wrestlers but Urijah’s probably got the edge there while Bowles is likely to be the stronger fighter in fisticuffs. There’s also the question of whether Urijah is past his prime after being nearly unbeatable early on in his career while fighting for the WEC. Still, the smart money is on Faber scoring the takedowns and controlling from the top for three rounds and the win.
Prediction: Urijah Faber by unanimous decision.
Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
Rick “The Horror” Story was supposed to be the next big thing at welterweight before running into Charlie Brenneman this past June. That may have put an end to his most recent run but the hype remains no less real. Rick Story is a legit threat to anyone. Meanwhile Martin Kampann is looking to work his way back up himself after losing to two tough grapplers in Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez.
Kampmann is a tough worker and will to try to pick Story apart in the standup but Rick isn’t exactly the type of fighter who’ll get drawn into a protracted chess match. He’ll come forward and make this one a brawl on the feet and on the ground. Plus he’s just the physically stronger man in this one so I see him using that to his advantage for the duration.
Prediction: Rick Story by unanimous decision.
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury
I think the UFC threw the good ole’ company man a bone here in giving Stephan Bonnar this televised and very winnable fight against Kyle Kingsbury. Granted, Bonnar has won his last two bouts in a row so this fight isn’t entirely based on past merit. And Kingsbury isn’t exactly just another can after quietly winning his past 4 UFC bouts while having two FOTN performances. The guy’s getting better and better while Bonnar remains the tough fighter he always was.
This fight will probably fall right into the Stephan Bonnar mold of being a bloody war with two guys going at it like the final 15 minutes of a boxing movie. I can’t pick against “The American Psycho” when it comes to that. I mean, it’s not like he’s fighting Forrest Griffin or anything.
Prediction: Stephan Bonnar by unanimous decision.
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