Let’s break down the undercard for UFC 139 with analysis and predictions for what may happen this Saturday night.
UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson – Preliminary Card (Spike TV) – Preview and Predictions
Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
What a tough year it’s been for Ryan Bader (12-2).
“Darth” started his career off with 12 straight wins (including 5 in the UFC) after winning season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter. Having beaten Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Keith Jardine in 2010, this year was to be his coming out party for title contention. Problem was that nobody told Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz that. Now the former Arizona State wresting standout sits winless in 2011 and firmly out of the title picture until he gets some rebound wins under his belt. At UFC 139, he’ll get his last at a win against Jason Brilz (18-4-1).
Similar to his opponent, Brilz is also looking for his first win after losing his last two bouts to the previously mentioned Nogueira and Vladimir Matyushenko. While his effort with Lil Nog was admirable – with some saying he may have been robbed of the decision in a FOTN effort, the latter left him reeling with “The Janitor” laying him out within the first minute (or 20 seconds to be exact). Now with only one win in his last three bouts, it’s quite possible than Brilz will be fighting for his job against his highly-touted opponent.
Stylistically, this is definitely a fight that Bader should win. They both have the same strengths as strong-as-oxen type wrestlers but “Darth” is going to walk into this one as the prohibitive favorite both in strength and wrestling pedigree. Granted, Bader did get rocked and TKO’d by Tito but so did Brilz against Matyushenko. For our money, the 20-second knockout is definitely the more telling of the two. Expect Ryan to avoid getting hurt on the feet this time around and work this one to the ground for a workman-like ground-and-pound victory.
Prediction: Ryan Bader by TKO in RD3.
Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto
With this bout, the youngest man on the UFC roster gets some national attention on Spike TV after 2 wins in the octagon so far. Now 13-1 overall, 20 year old Michael McDonald will look to improve on a hard-fought (close) win over Chris Cariaso by taking on Alex Soto (6-0-1), a one-time JMMA veteran who’s previously made his living on the SoCal regional circuit.
Soto showed impressively in garnering a draw against the more experienced Seiji Akao at DEEP but expect McDonald to pull away with this one on account of his generally well-rounded offense and kickboxing ability to set things up. In fact, expect him to put his fellow Californian away in the later rounds of this one.
Prediction: Michael McDonald by submission, RD3.
UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson – Preliminary Card (Facebook) – Preview and Predictions
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
Why this one isn’t being shown on Spike TV is beyond me. Tom Lawlor is always entertaining and Chris Weidman is one of the top up-and-coming talents at middleweight. Perhaps it’s a testament to the strength of the card that guys like these two, Gleison Tibau, and Miguel Torres are being broadcast on the internet instead of cable but hey, I’m not complaining. All the fighters on the roster will get their due on FUEL and the like in 2012 anyways. Now on to this fight…
“The Filthy Mauler” Tom Lawlor may arguably be one of the most entertaining personalities in all of MMA but as a fighter, he’s a solid mid-carder after losing to the likes of Joe Doerksen and Aaron Simpson. Meanwhile, Chris Weidman is a legit top prospect at 185 who went toe to toe with the likes on Andre Galvao at ADCC 2009 without getting submitted, all on less than two years of training submissions. If he keeps improving, he’ll have the same success in the MMA world. Sorry to say but it’ll be the Filthy Mauler getting mauled in this one.
Prediction: Chris Weidman by submission, RD3.
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos
I’ve said it before… Gleison Tibau is like the lightweight version of ATT teammate Thiago Alves. He’s huge for this weight class and has used that to his advantage in taking out less-athletic opponents. Meanwhile, Rafael dos Anjos is a fundamentally-solid fighter fresh off a KO win over George Sotiropoulos. That last performance was impressive but I don’t see him knocking out Tibau or finishing him with a submission. Tibau should be able to utilize his strength and speed to edge this one out on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Chris Weidman by split decision.
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace
If anybody can keep pace (pun intended) against any 135 fighter on the planet, it’s the former Carlson Gracie protege Miguel Torres. The former champ is taking on a fighter who’s biggest claim to fame so far is beating Texan Will Campuzano. Nick Pace won’t be able to further his name in this one. The real question is whether the former WEC champ does enough to finish him. For my money, I say he does.
Prediction: Miguel Torres by TKO, RD3.
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski
It doesn’t seem like too long ago when Matt Brown saved his UFC job after three fights in a row by winning against John “Doomsday” Howard – perhaps proving that he is in fact “Immortal.” Meanwhile, “Polish Pistola” Seth Baczynski has been going the other way in winning his last three fights. It’s not going to come that easily against the relentless fighting style of Brown though. Look for Matt to try and use aggression to quickly put away his less-seasoned opponent in this one.
Prediction: Matt Brown by TKO, RD1.
Lightweight bout: Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo
Shamar Bailey impressed on season 13 of TUF and won his first official UFC bout before dropping a decision in his last one to Evan Dunham. Meanwhile, WEC vet Danny Castillo lost his last UFC bout to wrestler Jacob Volkmann after winning his previous three prior to that. I see this bout as a protracted battle where Shamar will look to use his wrestling to contain Castillo while Danny tries to outstrike him on the fight. This one could go late or end in a flash but either way, I believe Castillo has enough to take it.
Prediction: Danny Castillo by unanimous decision.
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