HOUSTON, TX, October 7, 2011 – We’re back with another set of predictions for UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III, taking place tomorrow night right here in our backyard in Houston. We went 7-3 with our picks last weekend for UFC Live 6 so let’s see if we can continue that streak this Saturday night.
We know you’ve been inundated with pre-fight coverage this week through TXMMA and every other MMA media source out there so let’s just skip the prefacing and go straight to the fight talk this time. Read through and let us know through the comments session whether you agree or think we’re out of our minds!
UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III – Main card (PPV)
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray Maynard
The conclusion of this trilogy has been a long time in the making. It’s been covered over and over again that Maynard is the only fighter ever to notch a win of the New Jersey native. Their last fight also made him the only one ever to go to a draw with him as well. This Saturday, Frankie is looking to move past those and put Gray Maynard behind him, win or lose.
As for Gray Maynard, he’s looking for only one thing and one thing only – to put that draw behind him and claim the title that should have been his after putting Frankie down in the 1st round of their last fight only to let him back into the fight.
If you analyze that last fight, Gray lived up to his nickname of being a “Bully” but eventually fell prey to the much faster and busier fighter. He no-doubt throws the harder shots if he connects but Edgar wins out if the fight is stretched out to a battle of attrition. As evident by their last fight, Frankie is a fighter that just won’t go away. There’s simply no quit in him.
My feel is that this Saturday night is going to prove much of the same. Gray will come out strong and emotional while looking to prove a statement while Frankie will be the more patient fighter and not look to mix things up with the bigger “Bully” early on like he did last time. He’s going to build a lead and frustrate his otherwise dominating opponent all the way to a decision.
► Prediction: Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision.
Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Kenny Florian
Like I said in our article on this matchup, this fight is a chance for both men to prove very different things. For José Aldo – he’s looking to prove (again) that he is one of the best P4P fighters on the planet and can beat top opposition where it matters most – the UFC octagon. For Kenny, it’s possible that this fight is more about proving something to himself – that he isn’t just a perennial top contender and can win the big one when it counts. If he accomplishes that, all the other critics will be silenced.
As far as how this thing will turn out on Saturday night, well that also hinges on a couple of questions. Is Aldo well-conditioned enough to go five rounds against a gritty, forward-facing fighter like Florian? And is Kenny fast enough at 145 to withstand the relentless assault in every facet of the game like José is about to throw at him?
This fight will answer all those questions.
For me, the prevailing thought is that José Aldo is too fast and can throw with enough velocity to keep Kenny on his heels for the duration so long as he doesn’t tire. But that’s the big “what if?” If this bout goes into the championship rounds, Florian is undoubtedly going to have the cardiovascular edge because of his frame and the fact that he’s more steady than explosive – as Aldo is. This is a tough call. I do think this has all the makings of an upset special if it can stretch out to rounds 4 and 5 but I have to go with the champion for the win.
► Prediction: José Aldo by TKO.
Middleweight bout: Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
Finally, the most interesting man in the world (of MMA) returns to the octagon after a brief hiatus from action after his near-upset of Anderson Silva little over a year ago. This time, he’s fighting for a chance to get those last five minutes back by earning a win and a title shot over the All-American Brian Stann.
We all know Sonnen’s story. Prior to that fight with SIlva, he ran through three straight contenders in a row (Marquart, Okami, D. Miller) to earn his title shot. He’s a dominating wrestler and gritty ground-and-pound artist who’s only weaknness has been getting caught by top-of-the-food-chain submission artists.
Meanwhile, Brian Stann was a largely unheralded (but decent) fighter coming out of the WEC organization that’s made a decent name for himself in the UFC by winning five out his seven fights in the octagon. Most recently, he’s taken out Jorge Santiago, Chris Leben, and Mike Massenzio after dropping down from 205 to middleweight to earn his way into this title eliminator.
In this fight, both men will be looking to inflict their wills and respective strengths on the other guy. That means Stann will try to knock Sonnen’s block off and Chael will try to take Brian down and smother beat the heck out of him on the ground. That much is certain. This fight’s going to come down to who can impose themselves as the tougher guy out there. Like Chael said in his Voice of the Cage interview with Patrick Stanger, “This isn’t a wrestling match, it’s not a boxing match, this is a fight and we’ll see who’s going to be the tougher guy out there.”
For our money, we’ll take Chael Sonnen in this contrast of styles. Stann’s best chance is going to be to time a straight shot down the middle to take Sonnen out but Chael’s got a way of closing the distance very effectively and weaving his way in. (see: Anderson Silva fight) As long as he doesn’t get his neck caught on the way in for those shots and trips, it should be takedown, rinse, and repeat in this one.
► Prediction: Chael Sonnen by unanimous decision.
Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
There are many people out there still not believers of Melvin Guillard. “He’ll get caught in a submission,” they say. That’s been the hallmark of losses early on in his career but I believe something’s changed in Melvin over the course of the last two years. He’s finally matured as a fighter and is realizing his vast potential. Case in point, the man has five wins in a row against top competition on his way up the ranks.
This fight will either prove those naysayers wrong or validate them.
Melvin is taking on a very cagy veteran in Joe Lauzon. J-Lau is experienced enough to know he has to take this fight to the ground and smart enough to know he has to take it there. But can he match Melvin’s blazing speed and power without getting caught? I have my doubts.
► Prediction: Melvin Guillard by TKO.
Featherweight bout: Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
This bout has been a long time in the making after the controversial decision that marked their last fight in December’s TUF 13 Finale. Many thought that fight should have to Phan, even perhaps Leonard but that’s not the way the cookie crumbles. This fight will be a chance to right the ship and correct history conclusively.
How’s this one going to turn out? Probably a lot like their last one. Both fighters are well-rounded but not overwhelmingly dominant in any one area. And both could be classified as journeymen at this point in their careers. It’s cliché but this one could really come down to “who wants it more” and I see that being Garcia. It’s a shot in the dark but I see him catching Phan and putting him out at some point in this fight.
► Prediction: Leonard Garcia by TKO.
UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III – Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
► Prediction: Demian Maia by submission.
Lightweight bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens
► Prediction: Anthony Pettis by decision.
UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III – Preliminary card (Facebook)
Heavyweight bout: Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic
► Prediction: Joey Beltan by TKO.
Featherweight bout: Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins
► Prediction: Zhang Tie Quan by submission.
Middleweight bout: Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer
► Prediction: Aaron Simpson by decision.
Middleweight bout: Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio
► Prediction: Mike Massenzio by TKO.
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