As the headliner to this Battle of the Bayou, this event features former Strikeforce champ Jake Shields back in the octagon for the first time since taking on GSP this past April against Jake Ellenberger. The card is very TUF-heavy on the undercard with notable MMA-reality vets like Cody McKenzie, Jonathan Brookins, and Court McGee all competing.
Holding up the flag for the Lone Star State in this one is Anthony “T.J.” Waldburger. Competing out of the Grappler’s Lair in Temple, TX, Waldburger will be competing in his third UFC bout after splitting his first two bouts against David Mitchell and fellow Texan Johny Hendricks.
Without further adieu, let’s just get to it and give you our analysis and predictions of every single fight on this card.
UFC Fight Night 25 – Main Card (SPIKE TV)
Welterweight bout: Jake Shields (26-5-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5)
Fight Analysis – In this fight, Jake Ellenberger get what he’s been asking for in this fight with Jake Shields. Ellenberger has been calling out the former Strikeforce champ since last October via Twitter and press outlets and now it’s finally come true. But you know what they say…
Be careful what you wish for.
The difference between Jake and Jake is that Shields has fought the best in the world and has won more often than not. Yes he’s coming off a loss to GSP in his last fight this past April but hey, not many people would do any different against the Canadian at this time. Prior to that, Shields beat guys like Dan Henderson, Carlos Condit, and Mayhem Miller… just to name a few. He’ll be the stiffest challenge Ellenberger has ever faced.
As for the challenger, so to speak, he’s coming into this fight as no slouch himself and with four wins in a row since his last loss to Carlos Condit. With 24 wins, he’s no green prospect and like his opponent, he’s also got an elite wrestling background.
Both fighters are similar in terms of what they like to do. The difference in this fight will be that Shields has a definitive advantage over Ellenberger in most of areas that matter – namely grappling and experience. He won’t finish him but he should take this one with no incident.
Fight Prediction – Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision.
Middleweight bout: Court McGee (13-1) vs. Dongi Yang (10-1)
Fight Analysis – It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a Court McGee sitting. Ever since he won the 11th season of TUF in 2010, he’s only fought once more – winning last October over Ryan Jensen at UFC 121. Despite the inactivity, he’s always been known as a grimy fighter – using his karate, wrestling, and submissions to win by any means necessary.
Meanwhile, Korean Top Team’s “Ox” Dongi Yang is a different type of fighter altogether. Outside of his UFC debut loss to Chris Camozzi, he’s TKO’d almost everyone else he’s ever faced, including Rob Kimmons in his last UFC bout.
The Ox isn’t likely to want to wrestle with McGee but he’ll probably have to more often than not in this bout. The TUF winner is too well-rounded and too versed on the ground for his opponent in this one.
Fight Prediction – Court McGee by submission in RD3.
Featherweight bout: Jonathan Brookins (12-3) vs. Erik Koch (12-1)
Fight Analysis – TUF winner Jonathan Brookins was last seen winning a decision over Michael Johnson in the Season 12 finale while Eric Koch was last seen knocking out Raphael Assuncao. This fight will decide who among these two is ready to be a contender in the 145 division.
As far as strengths go, Brookins is probably the stronger fighter on the ground but he’ll probably have one hell of a time trying to get it there. Instead he’ll have to content with a fast-improving Koch on his feet and that’s no easy task. This is a very difficult fight for the Caveman in his 145 debut.
Fight Prediction – Eric Koch by Unanimous Decision.
Middleweight bout: Alan Belcher (16-6) vs. Jason MacDonald (24-14)
Fight Analysis – This bout marks the UFC return for former 185 contender Alan Belcher after being out since May 2010 with a serious eye injury. He’ll be dealing with a journeyman fighter in his return.
If the returning fighter is back to normal with his health and not a victim of ring rust, he should prove to be the superior fighter on the feet and on the ground. It’s a game first fight back Belcher but one he should win after getting in some good work.
Fight Prediction – Alan Belcher by TKO, RD2.
UFC Fight Night 25 – Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Lightweight bout: Cody McKenzie (12-1) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-2)
Fight Analysis – McKenzie always reminds me of that dude from V for Vendetta, minus the hat. He played the part as a somewhat goofy fighter on TUF and always managed to win with his patented guillotine choke until Texan Yves Edwards put a stop to that at UFC: Fight for the Troops 2.
Meanwhile, Vagner Rocha is a submission artist in his own rite, coming into the UFC with that pedigree after having trained for years under Pablo Popovitch. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t get a chance to use those skills in his UFC debut against Donald Cerrone at UFC 131, who peppered him with leg kicks throughout three rounds of painful looking action.
We’ll see who is better with submissions in this one but something tells me McKenzie will pull off his sneaky trick once again.
Fight Prediction – Cody McKenzie by submission (guillotine), RD1.
Lightweight bout: Evan Dunham (11-2) vs. Shamar Bailey (12-3)
Fight Analysis – There was once a time when Evan Dunham was supposed to be the next big thing at 155. Actually, it wasn’t too long ago but two losses in a row to Melvin Guillard and Sean Sherk have quieted that momentum a bunch.
Meanwhile, Shamar Bailey hasn’t fought since winning a decision over Ryan McGillivray at the TUF 13 Finale.
This is no doubt a “get back on track” fight for Dunham and that’s exactly what he’ll do in this one. Bailey’s going to try hard but Evan should be way too much for him.
Fight Prediction – Evan Dunham by TKO, RD2.
Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle (5-2) vs. Lance Benoist (5-0)
Fight Analysis – Matt Riddle is fighting for the first time since dropping a decision to Sean Pierson at UFC 124. He’ll be taking on a debuting fighter in Lance Benoist in this one.
Unless we see something different from the rookie, look for Riddle to use his wrestling to smother his opponent and eventually win the bout.
Fight Prediction – Matt Riddle by TKO, RD3.
Bantamweight bout: Ken Stone (9-3) vs. Donny Walker (15-7)
Fight Analysis – Both these fighters are coming off losses and it’s probably no stretch to say both these guys are fighting for their jobs right about now. That’s a strong motivator and this could be anyone’s game.
Fight Prediction – Ken Stone by TKO, RD2.
Welterweight bout: Clay Harvison (13-6) vs. Seth Baczynski (7-1)
Fight Analysis – The “Polish Pistola” Seth Baczynski did well on the TUF Finale for season 11 in a loss to Brad Tavares. He’s rebounded with two losses on the regional circuit to fight his way back. Meanwhile, Clay Harvison won his UFC debut fight at the The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale against Justin Edwards in another close contest. This one may not be so close. Look for this fight to turn into a slugfest.
Fight Prediction – Seth Baczynski by TKO, RD2.
Welterweight bout: TJ Waldburger (13-6) vs. Mike Stumpf (8-2)
Fight Analysis – This fight is TJ’s chance for UFC redemption after dropping that last fight against Team Takedown’s Johny Hendricks. He was scheduled to fight a tough opponent in Daniel Roberts before a late change of opponent to UFC debut fighter Mike Stumpf. I don’t know much about this opponent other than that he trains with Jeff Curran’s team out in Chicago but look for TJ to win this one in impressive fashion.
Fight Prediction – TJ Waldburger by Submission, RD3.
Featherweight bout: Mike Lullo (14-3) vs. Robert Peralta (8-3)
Fight Analysis – Lullo’s going to want to take this fight to the ground pretty quickly after getting beat up and TKO’d by Edson Barboza in his last fight. Meanwhile, Peralta is making his UFC debut after winning 7 in a row. Look for that streak to end with this one to his more experienced opponent.
Fight Prediction – Mike Lullo by Submission, RD2.
Welterweight bout: Justin Edwards (11-1) vs. Jorge Lopez (6-1)
Fight Analysis – Justin Edwards is looking to rebound after a close loss to Clay Harvison at TUF 13 finale. Lopez is a green fighter looking to make a name for himself in his UFC debut. Both guys are fairly similar but Edwards should prove to be a little stronger in this one.
Fight Prediction – Justin Edwards by Submission, RD2.
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