Co-Authored by TXMMA Guest Contributor Drew Turner and Mike Calimbas
The main event pits the USA versus. Russia showdown in a battle of two legends in the twilight of their careers as Fedor Emelianenko faces off against Dan Henderson. With two losses in a row, “The Last Emperor” will surely be looking to use “Hendo” has a means to retain some of his status as one of the top fighters in the world. Across from him, Henderson will be looking cement his own legacy as he seeks his third victory in a row after beating Rafel “Feijao” Cavalcante and Renato Babalu Sobral heading into this bout.
The rest of the televised undercard features four more exciting matchups. In the first, Golden Glory’s Marloes Coenen defends her Women’s 135 belt against Miesha Tate. Follow that will what is likely a middleweight #1 contender eliminator pittomg former champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler against Austin’s favorite American hero, Tim Kennedy.
Closing out the card are two welterweight bouts with Paul “Semtex” Dailey taking on up-and-coming prospect Tyron Woodley and the always entertaining Scott Smith taking on Belgian up-and-comer Tarec Saffiedine.
For the sake of analyzing this intriguing event, we’ve invited MMA blogger Drew Turner go against Mike Calimbas in a game of analyzing and predicting this Saturday’s fights. Feel free to chime in with your own picks via our comments section to see who gets it right come fight night!
Let’s start from the bottom and work our way up to the main event.
Scott Smith (17-8) +190 versus Tarec Saffiedine (10-3) -240
We start the televised card off in the welterweight division with this matchup pitting a knockout artist in Smith against a technical strike in Saffiedine.
Drew’s Analysis / Pick – Scott Smith is a fighter that possess the great equalizer in MMA a very heavy hand. He isn’t the most technical striker out there but he is dangerous. He can take a beating and still have the wherewithal to land a knockout blow. Saffiedine on the other hand is a very technical striker with good foot work and great kicks. It would surprise me if this thing goes to the ground but if it does Saffiedine has the clear advantage. This will be a stand-up war with both guys throwing alot of strikes early. Saffiedine only has one knock out on his record and to be honest he doesn’t have the power to finish Smith on the feet. Saffiedine will get frustrated as the fight goes on and Smith will draw Saffiedine into a brawl. Once this happens it will be nightly night for Tarec Saffiedine.
Winner: Scott Smith via second round KO
Mike’s Analysis / Pick – I agree with your analysis for the most part. You’ve described these fighters to a T with Scott Smith maintaining the always-dangerous puncher’s chance and the younger Belgian having the better chance to win technically. I’m not sure Tarec has the advantage on the ground though. He’s only a blue belt and Scott still holds the pedigree of being a wrestler despite never wanting to take the fight to the ground. Both men are coming off losses with Tarec falling to Woodley via decision and Smith having lost this last two to explosive strikers in Semtex Daley and Cung Le. Saffiedine is technical but he’s neither of those guys. At these odds (+180), I’ll have to go with Smith also.
Winner: Scott Smith via split decision
Paul Daley (27-10) +220 versus Tyron Woodley (8-0) -280
In our next bout we see the up and coming Tyron Woodley against the dangerous Paul “Semtex” Daley.
Drew’s Analysis / Pick – Woodley a former division I wrestler at Missouri is coming off a unanimous decision win over Tarec Saffiedine. Daley on the other hand is a heavy-handed striker coming off a knockout loss to a dominant Strikeforce champion in Nick Diaz. Even though Daley is coming off a loss, don’t look for him to be lacking confidence in this fight. He will come out head-hunting and look for an early knockout. Woodley will weather the early storm and take the fight were he wants it to be, the ground. Daley has had trouble with wrestlers in the past and his cardio has come into question often. I expect this fight will be no different. Woodley will use his superior wrestling and ground and pound to wear down Daley and win the easy decision.
Winner: Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision
Mike’s Analysis / Pick – You definitely made the safe choice. After all, Woodley remains undefeated and has even gone so far in his career as to have knocked out one of my BJJ heroes in André Galvão. On the other side, Semtex had won four in a row prior to running into Nick Diaz’s fists repeatedly on the way to getting TKO’d this past April in San Diego. Semtex has experience facing an explosive wrestler from earlier in his career when he faced Koscheck and it wasn’t pretty. He even got kicked out of the UFC due to his reaction after that fight when he sucker-punched Koscheck. I expect the Brit to be equally frustrated this time around. Much to my competitive disappointment, once again I have to pick the same as you.
Winner: Tyron Woodley via unanimous decision
Robbie Lawler (18-7) +220 versus Tim Kennedy (13-3) -280
This fight could be a pivotal one as both these fighters are angling for top contender status in the Strikeforce middleweight division.
Drew’s Analysis / Pick – Robbie Lawler has had a rough time as of late, going 2-3 in his last five Strikeforce bouts. His opponent Tim Kennedy has had more success with the organization going 4-1 as of late. Lawler is a brawler with 15 Knockout to his credit but in his 7 losses, 5 of them have come by way of submission. Kennedy has never been knocked out in all 16 of his fights and that streak will not get broken Saturday. Kennedy is a smart fighter and will not get sucked into Lawler’s fight. Kennedy wants the fight on the mat where his grappling will take over. Kennedy will get this fight to the ground and get it there early. Look for Lawler to get too aggressive while in Tim’s guard and get caught with a triangle early in the fight.
Winner: Tim Kennedy via first round submission
Mike’s Analysis / Pick – Now it gets interesting. Lawler’s career has been an up-and-down seesaw since 2008. Hard to imagine that he could be on the decline given that he’s not even thirty yet but the “Ruthless” one has fought for a long time… since 2001 to be exact. Meanwhile you’ve got Tim Kennedy, who at two years older than Lawler seems on only be getting better and better. He too started back in ’01 but he seems to have the fresher legs of the two at this point. His record has been testament to that with his only loss being in a championship bout againt Jacare back in Strikeforce Houston – a fight that he looked impressive in before getting edged out late. I agree with your pick but not the method as I think Tim’s confident enough in his standup to at least test the waters for a few rounds before trying to take it to the mat.
Winner: Tim Kennedy via unanimous decision
Marloes Coenen (19-4) -105 versus Miesha Tate (11-2) -125
The only women’s fight on the card is a 135lb title fight between two well rounded fighters, Marloes Coenen and Miesha Tate.
Drew’s Analysis / Pick – Miesha Tate is a fighter that finishes fights. Seven of her wins have come by way of knockout or submission. She has not fought in almost a year though with her last win coming by way of decision against Hitomi Akano so ring rust could play a factor in this fight. Coenen on the other hand has stayed busy. In March, she successfully defended her title against Liz Carmouche. Don’t look for this fight to be a punch, counter-punch type of fight. Tate will want to take this fight to the mat and ground-and-pound Coenen until the referee pulls her off. The only problem with this is Coenen is money off her back finishing her last two opponents with an armbar and triangle. Tate is a skilled fighter but with the year layoff and the momentum Coenen has behind her, there is little chance she wins this fight. Coenen will use her ground game to wear Miesha out until she gets tired and sloppy. I look for Marloes to catch an arm and stretch Tate out for a submission win late in the fight.
Winner: Marloes Coenen via third round submission
Mike’s Analysis / Pick – First of all let me just say what some of you may be thinking. I’m looking forward to watching these two go at it for two reasons. A) They’re both exceptional fighters. And B) They are both definitely pretty dang easy on the eyes. Okay, now that’s out of the way let’s get to the analysis. You’re right, Miesha Tate has had a pretty long layoff after not having fought in a year while Marloes has won and defending the 135 belt in that span of time. The thing that stands out to me though is that Liz Carmouche was pummelling Coenen pretty well until getting caught late with that triangle. With all her experience, “Takedown” Tate isn’t liable to fall for the same gambit and will more than likely spend the majority of this fight controlling from top position. She’s never fought in the championship rounds before but is definitely the stronger fighter of the two physically. That’s going to wear on the champion. Look for Tate to pull this one out late.
Winner: Miesha Tate via fourth round TKO
Fedor Emelianenko (31-3) -225 versus Dan Henderson (28-8) +185
The main event features two men who do not need any introduction, men known by one name – Fedor and Hendo.
Drew’s Analysis / Pick – Both men are legends in the sport but have had very different results in their last two fights. Fedor is coming off back-to-back losses – the only true losses of his career. After getting submitted by Werdum, the doctors stopped the fight against Antonio Silva which led many to believe Fedor might call it quits. Henderson on the other hand is coming off back-to-back knock out wins against Renato Sobral and Rafael Cavalcante and is the current Strikeforce Light-Heavyweight champion. This fight was first rumored to be a catch-weight bout but was later changed to a heavyweight bout. That being said Henderson will probably have a weight differential of 20 pounds to deal with. Fedor should weigh in between 225-235 while Henderson says he will stay around 206-210 and this will be a big factor in the fight.
There isn’t much we can say that hasn’t already been said about these two so let’s keep this simple. Henderson is a great fighter that can knock out anyone and has never been knocked out. Fedor is one of the greatest of all-time and that doesn’t just go away because you lose two fights. Though fight to call but I believe Fedor wins this fight by submission. There is no way one of the greatest fighters ever loses 3 in a row to an undersized Henderson who’s only chance to win is by knockout.
Winner: Fedor Emelianenko by third round submission
Mike’s Analysis / Pick – You’ve got their history right and I’m not surprised by your pick. After all, I’m a sentimentalist and one of the biggest PRIDE FC / JMMA / Fedor marks that I know of. I’ve almost ALWAYS picked the PRIDE fighter when it comes to these type of matchups. (note: I know Hendo fought in PRIDE also but Fedor personified the organization for years) The sad thing about this matchup is that I’ll finally have to err on the side of reality, and that is one where Fedor should be hanging them up. Heck I eulogized the man back in July after his loss to Silva and perceived ride into retirement. It’s time for him to go and he’s taking on Henderson at the wrong time. Let’s not forget Hendo never GAS (obvious acronym) about weight throughout his career and he’s always had that thunderous left hand. He was an Olympic-level wrestler too and he may actually start using it in this fight. Contrary to your belief, Hendo isn’t going to be submitted that easy and actually has more ways to win that Fedor does at this point in their careers.
Winner: Dan Henderson by second round TKO
Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson – Untelevised Undercard Picks
Lightweight bout: Gesias Cavalcante vs. Bobby Green
Drew’s Pick – Cavalcante | Mike’s Pick –Cavalcante
Welterweight bout: Eduardo Pamplona vs. Tyler Stinson
Drew’s Pick – Stinson | Mike’s Pick – Pamplona
Women’s Welterweight (135 lb) bout: Alexis Davis vs. Julie Kedzie
Drew’s Pick – Davis | Mike’s Pick – Kedzie
Middleweight bout: Derek Brunson vs. Lumumba Sayers
Drew’s Pick – Sayers | Mike’s Pick – Brunson
Heavyweight bout: Bryan Humes vs. Gabriel Salinas-Jones
Drew’s Pick – Humes | Mike’s Pick – Salinas-Jones
YOU can help us grow Texas MMA! Please take a moment to read this article to see how YOU can help us grow the sport. Please make sure to LIKE TXMMA on Facebook when you get the chance and let us know if you have any feedback on how we can serve you better!
