May 25, 2011 – This Saturday LIVE on PPV, UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill is set to take place from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Originally planned as the showcase for the lightweight championship rubber match featuring Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard to settle their split decision draw from UFC 125, the event will instead feature the popular “Rampage” Jackson in a main event showdown with former “Ultimate Fighter” Matt Hamill along with a heavyweight scrap between contenders Frank Mir and Roy “Big Country” Nelson.
Let’s take a look at the top fights and stories for UFC 130 this Saturday:
The Main Event – Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Matt “The Hammer” Hamill
With that being said, one can assume Quinton “Rampage” Jackson will be sure to go into this fight motivated with a potential title shot looming. The former PRIDE slam machine has been mercurial of late with other priorities on his mind aside from fighting (read: B.A. Barracus’ burgeoning movie career). Stating a desire to end his career and retire by the age of thirty-five (three years from now), it is conceivable that could be Jackson’s last shot to make a run at reclaiming the 205 title that was once his.
In order to do that, he’ll have to get past a dangerous Matt Hamill, who is unquestioning walking into the biggest fight of his young career. For “The Hammer,” beating Rampage would validate him as a top-tier 205’er, a distinction he has thus far not gained despite a five-fight win streak that includes names like Tito Ortiz, Keith Jardine, Mark Muñoz, and even Jon Jones himself, albeit by DQ.
Rampage Jackson will go into this bout as undoubtedly the more explosive striker of the two. Rampage has KO power with both hands and can end the action at any point of the fight. Coming off his win against Lyoto Machida, Rampage also showed a newfound patience in his boxing that enabled him to get that decision.
Matt Hamill, the gritty wrestler, has also shown evolution in his own game, developing his striking enough where he is now enough of a danger on the feet to be wary of, something Mark Muñoz did not realize until Hamill knocked him out with a vicious head kick.
Prediction – Matt Hamill is going to have to wear Jackson down and get some critical takedowns in each round if he’s got a shot at winning this one. It’s too bad for him that Rampage is pretty good at dictating where the fight ends up, ala his fight with Dan Henderson. Hamill isn’t as quick as Rashad Evans, and he won’t have the same success with his takedowns. Plus, reports are that Rampage is coming in shape for this fight. I see this one ending as a close decision victory for Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.
The Heavyweight Attraction – Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
At 32 and 34 years old respectively, Frank Mir and Roy Nelson are both hanging around the top of a UFC heavyweight heap that gets considerably thinner after Cain Velasquez (C), Junior dos Santos, Brock Lesnar, and Shane Carwin. Considering the fact that dos Santos and Carwin are facing each other for a shot at the champion and Lesnar is on the shelf battling diverticulitis, the winner of this eliminator may be one fight away from the inevitable title shot.
Aside from losses to the aforementioned Carwin and Lesnar, Frank Mir has actually done well overall, amassing a respectable 14-5 record and winning five out of his last seven bouts, including his last – a KO over Mirko Crocop.
On the other side, “Big Country” has won seven out of his last ten en route to 15-5 overall but he is coming off a one-sided loss to Junior dos Santos at UFC 117. It should be noted though that he was the first fighter ever to take the impressive Brazilian to a decision in that #1 contender match.
Prediction – Big Roy proved he could take a beating in his last fight while Mir proved he could administer one in taking out Filipović. Nonetheless, all that might be mute as the deciding factor in this one may be which BJJ black belt can maintain top position on the ground en route to the decision victory. With that in mind, I’ll have to pick this one as a unanimous decision victory for the Renzo Gracie Black Belt, Roy Nelson.
Sengoku Middleweight Champion Jorge Santiago Returns to UFC versus Brian Stann
Looking to spoil Santiago’s return party is none-other than Brian “The Man” Stann. The USMC veteran and fan-favorite is coming off an impressive TKO against Chris Leben and will doubt be looking to do the same against the Brazilian.
Prediction – Jorge Santiago should hold the ground advantage should the bout go there but I don’t think he’ll get the chance to exploit that advantage in this bout. Brian Stann by TKO in this one.
Top Bantamweight Showdown – Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious Johnson (8-1) made a name for himself with a sound victory over a debuting Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto at UFC 126 this past February. Known as a fighter who never stops working, “Mighty Mouse” has a penchant for wearing opponents down by constantly changing levels and working to get the takedowns and grinding out his opponents on the ground.
Opposite him will be former WEC champion and Carlson Gracie prodigy Miguel Torres, who at 39-3 has been around the fight game for a long time. As dangerous as he is funny on his twitter feed, Torres is relentless everywhere the fight can go – on the ground, in the scrambles, or on the feet where he can take advantage with his dominant boxing.
Prediction – This fight could, and likely will, go all over the place. Look for Johnson to try to push the pace on Torres and get his experienced opponent to fight off-balanced and at his pace. At the other end, I see Torres trying to keep this fight standing and lull “Mighty Mouse” into a game of attempting takedowns while eating punches for three straight rounds. With that being said, I don’t see a finish in this fight but I see Torres doing enough to secure a three-round decision victory.
The Continued Rise of Michael McDonald – Taking on Chris Cariaso on the Undercard
Michael boasts a well-rounded arsenal of kickboxing and submission skill that’s allowed him to finish 11 out of 13 opponents before the judges’ scorecards. Training for over half his life, McDonald is likely to be a top bantamweight contender in the not-so-distant future provided he keeps up his winning ways.
Taking on McDonald will be Chris Cariaso, a fellow WEC vet and one-time UFC winner who also beat a Texan in his debut by taking out Will Campuzano at UFC: Fight for the Troops 2. Just like McDonald, Cariaso is a California native looking to make waves in the UFC 135 class and will no doubt do so should he get past the prodigious “May Day.”
Prediction – It will be tough to top McDonald vs. Figueroa but this will definitely be another exciting bout. I see McDonald stamping his blue-chip status on this one with a TKO somewhere in the middle stanza.
UFC 130 – Full Fight Card (predictions in bold)
Pay-Per-View Bouts – 8 p.m. Texas Time
- Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
- Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
- Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne
- Jorge Santiago vs. Brian Stann
- Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story
Preliminary Bouts on Spike TV – 7 p.m. Texas Time
- Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson
- Tim Boetsch vs. Kendall Grove
Preliminary Bouts on Facebook – 5:45 p.m. Texas Time
- Michael McDonald vs. Chris Cariaso
- Gleison Tibau vs. Rafaello Oliveira
- Cole Escovedo vs. Renan Barao